This season I have been breaking down a few of college football’s biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at the Rose Bowl matchup between Penn State and Utah.
Penn State vs Utah Spread, current line:
Penn State vs Utah Best Bet Prediction:
This looks like an even matchup, so I’ll take the points and play Penn State against the spread 一 be sure to shop around though, this line is still available at +3 in places and may fluctuate more leading up to kickoff.
» Bet it now: Penn State +2.5 points
When Penn State is on Offense
Penn State hasn’t won a Rose Bowl since Kerry Collins’s senior year in 1994, so we should assume there is a good amount of motivation for the Nittany Lions 一 the Rose Bowl still holds meaning to most programs.
This has been a run-heavy Penn State offense, with a 57% run rate in neutral game situations, per Campus2Canton.
Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley prefers to stack the box and does so at a rate 57% above expected based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, the sixth-highest rate in the county.
Knowing Penn State’s run-heavy approach, expect Utah to aggressively stack the box in an effort to contain Nick Singleton, and force Sean Clifford to beat them in the passing game.
Although the stacked box could slow down Singleton a bit, Penn State should still have an edge in the run game based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Singleton averages 5.7 yards per attempt versus a stacked box, ranked 16th out of 59 Power Five running backs
- Utah allowed 4.9 yards per attempt with a stacked box, ranked 98th in the FBS
Penn State’s passing game has struggled, partly due to a shaky offensive line which ranks 109th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.
Utah’s defense ranks 17th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated 一 further reason for Penn State to lean heavily on the run game in this matchup.
If Penn State falls behind, don’t expect Clifford to lead a comeback. He’s never developed into a capable downfield passer and these numbers from Sports Info Solutions provide the evidence:
- 39.7% completion rate at 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 70th out of 115 quarterbacks
- 58.8% catchable pass rate at 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 94th
However, it is worth noting Utah has allowed a 48.8% completion rate on throws of at least 15 yards (ranked 114th) and will be without top cornerback Clark Phillips III, who opted out.
When Utah is on Offense
Utah runs the ball at a 55% rate in neutral situations per Campus2Canton, and will likely continue to lean on the running game despite playing without starting running back Tavion Thomas.
In two games without Thomas, Ja’Quinden Jackson has run for 222 yards on 23 carries, including five touchdowns. Those were undeniably impressive performances, but they came against Colorado and USC 一 two of the nation’s worst run defenses.
Take a look at how those defenses compare to Penn State’s based on opponent-adjusted yards before contact per attempt allowed:
- Penn State: Ranked 38th
- USC: Ranked 94th
- Colorado: Ranked 105th
Jackson will likely face stacked boxes at a high rate due to Utah’s old-school offensive scheme, which forced its running backs into stacked boxes at the 20th highest rate this season, per Sports Info Solutions.
Here’s a look at some key numbers for the Penn State defense with a stacked box:
- 3.7 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 21st
- 52.4% contact rate at or behind the line of scrimmage, ranked eighth
Cam Rising is capable of carrying the Utah offense in the passing game, but he’ll be without his top target (tight end Dalton Kincaid) and faces an elite Penn State pass rush.
Take a look at the battle in the trenches, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Penn State leads the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated
- Utah ranked 26th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed
Although Rising will likely face pressure from Penn State, he does have a track record of handling pressure well and limiting mistakes. Here are a few key numbers via Sports Info Solutions:
- 36% positive EPA rate versus pressure, ranked sixth
- 24% rate of -1 EPA or worse versus pressure, ranked fourth
An area where Rising has struggled has been on the deep ball, completing just 34.7% of his passes at 15 or more yards downfield (ranked 93rd).
Although Rising has struggled on the deep ball and will undoubtedly miss Kincaid, Penn State will also be without Joey Porter Jr., who allowed just four receptions at 10 or more yards downfield this season (on 261 snaps in coverage), per Sports Info Solutions.
Final Thoughts on Penn State vs Utah Best Bets
Although Utah probably has the better quarterback, both teams want to run the ball and Penn State appears to hold a more significant edge in that area and should be able to execute its preferred game plan against this mediocre Utah defense.
We can point to areas where each team holds an advantage, and it looks like this game is essentially a toss-up.
As a result, my preferred bet in this matchup is to take the points and play Penn State against the spread.