This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s break down a critical game in the ACC title race between Georgia Tech and Pitt.
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech, current line:
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech Best Bet Prediction:
Georgia Tech's defense is in shambles, so let's take the points and play Pitt against the spread.
- Georgia Tech vs. Pitt, best line: Pitt +2.5 points
» Bet it now at Novig: Pitt +2.5 points
When Pittsburgh is on Offense
Pitt runs an aggressive pass-heavy offense under coordinator Kade Bell, and the Panthers should be able to move the ball at will in this matchup against one of the worst defenses in the ACC.
Bell’s offense moves at a fast pace (ranked 25th in pace of play) and, according to Campus2Canton, the Panthers throw the ball at a rate 12% above expected based on situational data.
The one area Pitt should be concerned about is pass protection, which is likely to be at a disadvantage based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Pitt: ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
- Georgia Tech: ranked 71st in pressure rate generated
These numbers are slightly misleading, however, as Pitt’s offensive line is fine 一 the issue is freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel, who can’t process from the pocket.
Heintschel’s average time to throw is the fifth highest in the FBS.
Fortunately for Pitt, the Yellow Jackets don’t have a dominant edge rusher who can create instant pressure, so it’s an issue Bell can gameplan around.
Additionally, Georgia Tech has struggled to turn pressures into sacks and ranks 127th in sack conversion rate.
Pitt can probably navigate the pass rush issue because it’s a balanced passing attack in terms of the types of dropbacks Heintschel takes in the system.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Heintschel takes a traditional dropback (three or more steps) 49% of the time, and a quick dropback (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) 41% of the time (the unaccounted for dropbacks are mostly rollouts and trick plays).
So if the pass protection is holding up, Heintschel can drop back in the pocket and attack downfield.
If not, the Panthers can pivot to a quicker underneath attack.
Either way, Pitt’s passing attack should be fine based on these Georgia Tech pass defense stats:
- Traditional dropbacks: 8.6 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 104th
- Quick dropbacks: 6.8 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 78th
Although Pitt leans heavily on the passing attack, the run game should have success in this matchup as well.
Star ball carrier Desmond Reid returned from an injury last week but was hurt again versus Notre Dame.
His status is uncertain.
Reid’s availability probably doesn’t matter against Georgia Tech’s pitiful run defense, and backup Ja'Kyrian Turner should do just fine if needed.
Check out these opponent-adjusted numbers on the run-game matchup from Sports Info Solutions:
- Pittsburgh: ranked 63rd in yards before contact
- Georgia Tech: ranked 114th in yards before contact allowed
- Pittsburgh: ranked 132nd in yards after contact
- Georgia Tech: ranked 112th in yards after contact allowed
Bell’s spread offense has created light boxes for his running backs 65% of the time, the nation’s 32nd-highest rate, which will contribute to making this an easy day on the ground for Reid and/or Turner.
With a light box, the Yellow Jackets are allowing 3.3 yards before contact per attempt.
Allowing untouched yardage at such a high rate has made it difficult for Georgia Tech to get off the field.
The Jackets are forcing opponents into third-and-long situations on just 19% of sets of downs, the 18th-worst rate in the FBS.
When Georgia Tech is on Offense
Georgia Tech uses a slightly run-heavy offense under coordinator Buster Faulkner, with a pass rate 2.5% below expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton.
Despite the run-centric scheme, one of the determining factors in the game will be how quarterback Haynes King handles the blitz.
So let’s take a look at King’s numbers against five or more pass-rushers from Sports Info Solutions:
- 67% completion rate, ranked 25th
- 7.6 yards per attempt, ranked 70th
- 5.8% sack rate, ranked 53rd
- 47% positive EPA rate, ranked 50th
These stats are critical to understanding this matchup as the Panthers have the nation’s sixth-highest blitz rate at 40% and have blitzed at a rate of 30% or higher in every game.
As one of the best running quarterbacks in the country, you might assume King’s mobility will play a role in beating the blitz, but that will only be the case when the Jackets can dial up a designed run at just the right moment.
Despite his running ability, King doesn’t scramble.
In fact, King has scrambled to evade pressure just 3 times all year.
King’s performance against the blitz is likely to be a critical factor as Pitt might have the defense to slow down the Jackets’ rushing attack.
Check out these opponent-adjusted numbers on handoffs via Sports Info Solutions:
- Georgia Tech: ranked 13th in yards before contact
- Pittsburgh: ranked 30th in yards before contact allowed
- Georgia Tech: ranked 79th in yards after contact
- Pittsburgh: ranked 3rd in yards after contact
Georgia Tech primarily runs the ball from 11 personnel and leans heavily on outside runs 一 70% of the Jackets' rush attempts are outside the tackles, the ninth-highest rate.
Both of those trends play into Pitt’s strengths.
The Panthers allow 4.5 yards per attempt to the outside (ranked 36th) and 4.2 yards per attempt against 11 personnel (ranked 24th).
Even last week against Notre Dame, one of the nation’s most prolific rushing attacks, Pitt found some success holding Irish running backs to 5.4 yards per attempt, below their season average of 6.3 entering the game.
Georgia Tech should be especially concerned with Pitt’s ability to get into the backfield and make early contact.
Pitt makes contact with running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage at the nation’s sixth-highest rate (54%), per Sports Info Solutions.
And when Georgia Tech running backs have been hit early, they have been stopped for zero or negative yards 42% of the time, ranked 87th.
Whoever wins that battle of either forcing or avoiding early contact might end up winning this game because it’s an area where both are used to excelling.
Due to its ability to avoid early contact, Georgia Tech ranks fifth in third-and-long avoidance rate, while Pitt’s defense ranks ninth in third-and-long force rate.
Of course, we can’t talk about Georgia Tech’s rushing attack without also including King in that conversation.
Excluding sacks, King is averaging 15.7 carries per game for 94.2 yards.
Pitt hasn’t faced anyone of King’s caliber, though the Panthers are allowing just 3.7 yards per attempt to quarterbacks (ranked second).
Based on opponent-adjusted data, they are allowing 13% fewer rushing yards to quarterbacks than expected.
The most comparable offense Pitt has faced to date was probably Rich Rodriguez’s scheme at West Virginia.
Although Pitt lost that game, it held Rich Rod’s quarterbacks to 15 yards on 17 carries, excluding sacks.
If the Panthers can contain Georgia Tech’s rushing attack, the Jackets will need to rely on King and the passing game, which they have not had to do much this season.
When the Yellow Jackets do throw the ball, it’s mostly underneath routes in an effort to mask King’s inconsistent performance as a downfield passer.
King’s average depth of throw is just 6.5 yards downfield, which ranks 132nd per Sports Info Solutions.
Even in obvious passing situations, Georgia Tech doesn’t trust King’s downfield ability.
On third and seven or more yards to go, King throws past the sticks just 45% of the time.
So if Pitt can turn this game into a shootout, there are questions about the Yellow Jackets' ability to keep pace.
Final Thoughts on Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh Best Bets
Georgia Tech has not played well as a favorite under Brent Key, so let’s take Pittsburgh against the spread.
Under Key, the Jackets are 3-4 against the spread with three outright losses when favored by single digits.
There’s certainly some risk in trusting a freshman quarterback on the road, but since Georgia Tech can’t defend the run, Pitt should be able to make the necessary adjustments to protect Heintschel from himself.