This season I’m breaking down a few of college football’s biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at a showdown between undefeated ACC squads, Syracuse and Clemson.
Syracuse vs Clemson Spread, current line:
Syracuse vs Clemson Best Bet Prediction:
Syracuse will likely struggle to move the ball in this matchup, so lay the points and take Clemson against the spread.
When Syracuse is on Offense
Syracuse head coach Dino Babers used to run an aggressive pass-heavy offense but has pivoted to a more traditional run-based approach.
Running back Sean Tucker is a talented ball carrier who will play on Sundays, but he doesn’t have much support at Syracuse 一 and since defenses don’t fully respect the Orange passing game, Tucker has a tough job.
Syracuse ranks 83rd in opponent-adjusted rushing yards before contact 一 meanwhile Clemson’s defense ranks second in opponent-adjusted rushing yards before contact allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.
Tucker’s best asset is his speed 一 he also runs track at Syracuse 一 so he isn’t necessarily built for the extra contact Syracuse’s offense invites. Per Sports Info Solutions, Tucker ranks 58th out of 70 Power 5 running backs in yards after contact per attempt.
The Orange passing attack has been explosive at times this year, thanks to the emergence of Oronde Gadsden II as a downfield weapon. Syracuse ranks 35th in explosive pass rate, with 13% of attempts producing 20 or more yards.
Clemson’s secondary has been vulnerable this year, allowing a 49% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 105th.
However, for Syracuse to attack downfield, it will need to protect quarterback Garrett Shrader.
Syracuse’s offensive line versus Clemson’s pass rush is one of the biggest mismatches we’ll see this season. Consider these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Syracuse ranks 115th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed
- Clemson ranks fifth in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated
Shrader takes a traditional dropback (three or more steps) at the seventh highest rate in the nation (67% of dropbacks). That’s bad news against this Clemson defense, which ranks second with a 52% pressure rate generated versus traditional dropbacks.
Shrader has taken a sack on 24% of his dropbacks versus pressure, ranked 70th in FBS, per Sports Info Solutions. He’ll need to eliminate those drive-killing mistakes for Syracuse to have a chance at the upset.
When Clemson is on Offense
Although D.J. Uiagalelei has improved this year, Clemson wants to run the ball to keep pressure off its inconsistent quarterback.
Clemson does not have a dominant offensive line, but that shouldn’t be an issue against Syracuse’s mediocre run defense.
Consider these run-game numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Clemson ranks 54th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact
- Syracuse ranks 66th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed
- Clemson ranks seventh in rush attempts for zero or negative yards (11%)
- Syracuse ranks 51st in rush attempts allowed for zero or negative yards (20%)
Clemson’s ability to avoid negative plays in the run game is a significant reason why it ranks 14th in third-down conversion rate.
In the passing game, Syracuse’s defense may hold an advantage over Clemson.
Clemson has struggled to protect Uiagalelei, ranking 69th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate. The Orange defense ranks 11th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.
Syracuse also leads the nation in completion percentage allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (22.2%), per Sports Info Solutions.
Final Thoughts on Syracuse vs Clemson Best Bets
Syracuse was lucky to get NC State without quarterback Devin Leary last week. In Leary’s absence, the Wolfpack offense was inept, and Syracuse was able to overcome some turnovers and hang on for the win.
Sean Tucker also benefited from a friendly NC State defense, which ranks 112th in explosive rush rate allowed 一 63 of Tucker’s 98 yards game on two carries of 25 and 38 yards.
Tucker is not likely to have that type of success against Clemson’s dominant run defense, and the Clemson offense is not going to roll over like NC State.
Although this is likely to be a low-scoring game, Clemson may only need to reach the low 20s to cover the spread against Syracuse.