This season I have been breaking down a few of college football’s biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at the college football playoff matchup between TCU and Michigan.
TCU vs Michigan Spread, current line:
TCU vs Michigan Best Bet Prediction:
If I had to play the spread I’d take the points with TCU, but my preferred bet is the over on TCU’s total points at 24.5 points.
» Bet it now: TCU over 24.5 points
When TCU is on Offense
Sonny Dykes runs a version of the Air Raid offense, an offshoot of Mike Leach’s scheme, whom Dykes coached under at Texas Tech.
One area where Dykes differs significantly from Leach is his willingness to run the ball. According to Campus2Canton, TCU uses an even 50/50 run-pass split in neutral game situations.
Due to the combination of a spread offense and a strong offensive line, TCU excels at creating running lanes for Kendre Miller, and the Horned Frogs should hold an advantage in that area based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- TCU ranks fourth in yards before contact per attempt
- Michigan ranks 52nd in yards before contact per attempt allowed
As is common for Air Raid teams, TCU rarely runs into a stacked box 一 73% of their carries by running backs were into light boxes, the eighth highest rate.
Michigan defends the run relatively well in all situations, but has been vulnerable against light boxes lately. Here’s a look at their yards per attempt allowed to running backs with a light box over the last three games:
- Purdue: 4.7
- Ohio State: 6.3
- Illinois: 4.7
Miller averages 7.4 yards per attempt when running into a light box, the sixth highest rate (out of 142), per Sports Info Solutions.
Another reason to trust Miller’s ability to produce is Michigan’s issues creating early contact in the run game.
With a light box, Michigan contacts running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 31.9% of carries, ranked 86th according to Sports Info Solutions.
Michigan’s ability, or lack thereof, to create early contact should be a significant factor in this game based on Miller’s track record this season:
- When hit at or behind LOS: 1.3 yards per attempt (ranked 64th in FBS)
- When crossing line of scrimmage without contact: 8.9 yards per attempt (ranked 12th)
In the passing game, expect Max Duggan to have time to throw against an inconsistent Michigan pass rush.
Although Michigan can get pressure on the quarterback at times, the Wolverines lack an elite presence on the edge and struggle against quarterbacks who get rid of the ball quickly.
Duggan uses a zero/one-step drop or RPOs on 44% of his pass attempts, per Sports Info Solutions, which means he will likely get the ball out too quickly for Michigan’s pass rush to get home.
Against zero/one-step drop or RPOs, Michigan generates a 16.1% pressure rate, ranked 79th in the FBS.
Another area where Dykes differs from Leach is his willingness to challenge defenses downfield. Some key numbers on TCU’s passing at 15 or more yards downfield, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Downfield rate: 24.3%, 39th highest
- Completion rate: 48.3%, ranked 17th
Opposing teams are typically not shy about challenging Michigan’s defense downfield. The Wolverines face 7.8% more downfield throws than expected, relative to their opponents’ rates against others, while allowing a 38.5% completion rate, which ranks 50th in the FBS.
When Michigan is on Offense
Michigan is among the most run-heavy offenses in the college game, with a 59% run rate in neutral game situations, per Campus2Canton.
TCU’s 3-3-5 defense, which presents light boxes at an extreme rate, is likely to push Michigan into an even more run-heavy approach, so long as the game script allows. No defense stacked the box at a lower rate than TCU, which contributed to the Frogs’ inability to create early contact in the run game.
Opposing ball carriers gained three or more yards before contact on 37.2% of attempts against TCU, which ranked 120th, per Sports Info Solutions.
Although Michigan will miss Blake Corum (injury), we should expect Donovan Edwards to more than adequately fill in based on these numbers:
- 7.9 yards per attempt versus a light box
- 8.5 yards per attempt when not contacted in the backfield
Though TCU’s defense likely allows Michigan to have success on the ground, it could further limit Michigan’s inconsistent passing attack.
Based on data from Sports Info Solutions, take a look at J.J. McCarthy’s numbers versus four and five defensive back alignments:
DBs on Field Comp Pct Yds/Att Positive EPA Rate 5 DBs 55.1% 6.4 40.7% 4 DBs 74.4% 9.4 58.8%
Should Michigan build an early lead, these numbers won’t matter 一 but if TCU can force Michigan into a shootout, it will be difficult for McCarthy to keep up.
Another reason to doubt McCarthy’s ability to keep pace in a shootout is the downfield passing game matchup. Take a look at these numbers on throws 15 or more yards downfield from Info Solutions:
- McCarthy: 38.4% completion rate, ranked 84th
- TCU: 32.1% completion rate allowed, ranked 13th
Additionally, on throws 10 or more yards downfield, TCU has a ball-hawk rate (rate at which defenders make a play on the ball) of 28.6%, the nation’s fourth-highest rate.
A high ball-hawk rate is correlated with higher interception rates, which indicates McCarthy will need to be careful throwing downfield to avoid a costly turnover.
For these reasons, expect Michigan to avoid putting the ball in McCarthy’s hands unless absolutely necessary.
Final Thoughts on TCU vs Michigan Best Bets
There are a lot of numbers in this matchup favoring TCU. However, the mismatch of Michigan’s run game versus TCU’s run defense is concerning, and seems to justify the significant spread in this matchup.
If I had to bet the spread I’d roll with TCU, but I’d rather bet strictly on TCU’s offense in this game.
My preferred bet in this matchup is the over on TCU’s team total at 24.5 points.