This season I’m breaking down a few of college football’s biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at this matchup between Texas and Oklahoma State, which likely serves as an elimination game in the Big 12 race.
Texas vs Oklahoma State Spread, current line:
Texas vs Oklahoma State Best Bet Prediction:
Oklahoma State is having a strong season, but this is just a bad matchup on both sides of the ball 一 lay the points and take Texas against the spread.
When Texas is on Offense
The Texas offense runs through Bijan Robinson, but defenses also respect quarterback Quinn Ewers. As a result, we’ve seen different defensive approaches depending on who is playing quarterback for Texas (Ewers is healthy and will start this game).
In three full games with Ewers at quarterback, Texas ball carriers have run into a stacked box on 30% of their attempts, according to Sports Info Solutions. In three games with Hudson Card starting at quarterback, that rate was 62%.
Assuming this trend holds true against Oklahoma State, Texas has a massive edge in the run game. Consider these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Robinson averages 6.0 yards per attempt running into a light box
- Oklahoma State allows 5.7 yards per attempt with a light box (ranked 93rd)
In the passing game, expect Texas to take some shots downfield against a vulnerable Oklahoma State secondary.
Ewers has thrown 15 or more yards downfield on 31% of his attempts, the second-highest rate among Power 5 quarterbacks, while completing 52% of those throws (ranked 10th).
This is bad news for a Cowboys defense which ranks 113th in completion percentage allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (51.3%).
When Oklahoma State is on Offense
Oklahoma State favors the passing game, throwing the ball 52% of the time in neutral game situations, according to Campus2Canton.
Although the Cowboys throw the ball at a high rate, it is not a downfield passing offense. Spencer Sanders has thrown the ball 15 or more yards downfield on just 24% of his throws. Here’s a look at his numbers on those attempts, via Sports Info Solutions:
- 37.8% completion rate (ranked 48th out of 58 Power 5 quarterbacks)
- 62.8% catchable-pass rate (ranked 38th)
Since Oklahoma State does not regularly attack downfield, its offensive efficiency depends on the receivers to produce after the catch. 54% of Oklahoma State’s passing yards have come after the catch, the 35th highest rate in the nation.
The Cowboys’ dependency on YAC could be an issue against Texas, which is allowing just 4.4 YAC per reception, the ninth-lowest rate in FBS, per Sports Info Solutions.
Oklahoma State will likely struggle to run the ball against Texas’s defense based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- OK State ranks 130th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact
- Texas ranks 34th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed
- OK State ranks 87th in explosive rush rate (10+ yards gained)
- Texas ranks 31st in explosive rush rate allowed
The Cowboys’ run game struggles are especially concerning given the rate at which they run into a light box (72%, 17th highest rate). This should create more yards before contact and more explosive plays, but that has not been the case.
The Texas defense ranks 15th in yards per attempt allowed with a light box (3.9), so we should not expect the Oklahoma State run game to get back on track in this matchup.
Final Thoughts on Texas vs Oklahoma State Best Bets
In Week 5, we bet on Oklahoma State against Baylor and won 一 but that was based on a favorable matchup against Baylor’s traditional and non-explosive offense. Baylor’s game plan played into Oklahoma State’s hands.
The opposite is true against Texas, as nearly everything the Longhorns do on offense is going to highlight Oklahoma State’s weaknesses.
Laying six points on the road to a solid team can be scary, but we should have confidence in Texas in this matchup.