NFL Best Bets: Week 1 Picks
- Steelers -4.5
- Raiders/Dolphins Under 40.5
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NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Steelers -4.5
The Aaron Rodgers farewell tour opens with the Steelers hosting the Falcons.
He played like someone on the wrong side of 40 last season, trying to avoid punishment from freakish NFL athletes.
According to TruMedia, Rodgers' 2.52-second time to throw was the fastest among qualified quarterbacks, and his 5.9 air yards per pass attempt was 33rd, 0.3 yards shorter than the next closest passer.
The Steelers traded for Michael Pittman Jr. and drafted Germie Bernard in the second round of this year's NFL Draft, and both players should mesh with this version of Rodgers.
Among 93 wide receivers with at least 250 routes last season, Pittman ranked 78th in average depth of target (8.36).
Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Bernard had a 10.7-yard aDOT on 102 targets in his final collegiate season.
Pittman might be eased in, and Bernard might rotate with Roman Wilson, but both players will help the Steelers in the intermediate areas of the field.
DK Metcalf is still in the mix, as well, and he could enjoy this particular matchup.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, the Falcons ranked fourth in single-high coverage (59.4%) last year.
Jeff Ulbrich remains the team's defensive coordinator, so a single-high coverage should once again be a big part of the coverage plan.
Among 74 wideouts with at least 150 routes against single-high coverage in 2025, Metcalf was tied for 10th in targets per route run (0.28) and tied for 14th in yards per route run (2.38).
Despite Rodgers' penchant for getting the ball out quickly and short, he could have opportunities for shots against the Falcons.
Atlanta was 15th in pressure rate last year, but they are thin heading into the year.
James Pearce Jr, who led the team in pressure rate among players with at least 200 pass-rush snaps and sacks, is suspended.
Leonard Floyd, who was second on the team in pressure rate, is a free agent.
Jalon Walker, who was third in pressure rate, suffered a season-ending injury during the summer.
Atlanta is likely to struggle to generate pressure.
Pittsburgh's two-headed backfield of Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle should enjoy success, too.
The Falcons ranked 21st in yards allowed before contact per rush (1.44) last year and tied for 26th in EPA allowed per designed rush.
Pittsburgh's defense might even be more successful than its offense.
The Falcons ranked only 25th in yards per drive (1.89) and 20th in points per game (20.8) last season.
Kirk Cousins is elsewhere (more on that to come) and Tua Tagovailoa – maybe – is in.
Tagovailoa had an unserious preseason after a wretched final season with the Dolphins.
Among 33 qualified quarterbacks last season, Tagovailoa was 26th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback.
Per PFF, Tua dropped back 13 times in the preseason and had a 3.3-yard aDOT on 13 pass attempts.
The lefty had zero pass attempts that traveled more than 9 air yards.
Yikes.
I added the caveat that Tagovailoa might be in this week because he was limited in practice on Thursday with an oblique injury.
In Tagovailoa's stead, Cooper Rush took all the team's first-team reps.
Rush performed so poorly filling in for Lamar Jackson last year that Tyler Huntley replaced him.
The Steelers should control the game on offense, and the defense should bully Atlanta's offense.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Raiders-Dolphins Under 40.5
The Raiders dropped a bombshell on Wednesday, announcing Brock Bowers would miss some time after undergoing surgery to trim his meniscus.
His absence is suboptimal for an offense that lacks high-end pass-catching weapons.
Michael Mayer is a quality fill-in at tight end and was ticketed for a meaningful role if Bowers were healthy, but he's not Bowers.
Moreover, Kirk Cousins isn't a needle-mover at quarterback.
Among 33 qualified quarterbacks in 2025, Cousins was tied with Bryce Young for 27th in EPA per dropback.
That's an upgrade over Geno Smith, who ranked 31st in EPA per dropback as Las Vegas's starting quarterback.
Still, Cousins benefited from the weapons in Atlanta: Bijan Robinson, Drake London when he was healthy, and Kyle Pitts.
The Raiders don't have weapons sniffing that tier.
Klint Kubiak will likely lean on the running game.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, the Seahawks ranked 27th in pass rate over expected (-2.8% PROE) in 2025 with Kubiak as their offensive coordinator.
Conversely, the Dolphins ranked tied for 22nd in PROE (-0.6%) faced.
Ashton Jeanty suffered an injury scare in August, but the powers of the prayer circle worked, as he suffered only a low-ankle sprain and was a full practice participant on Wednesday's initial injury report.
Mike Washington Jr. also shined in the preseason.
Washington toted the rock 23 times for 168 yards at 7.3 yards per carry in the preseason, demonstrating his explosiveness on runs of 53 and 33 yards.
The Raiders should find some success on the ground.
Miami ranked tied for 23rd in yards allowed before contact per attempt (1.48) and tied for 15th in EPA allowed per designed rush in 2025.
Las Vegas shouldn't be deterred from grinding out yardage on the ground and keeping the clock ticking.
The Dolphins should also find some success on the ground.
The Raiders ranked tied for fourth in yards allowed before contact per rush (1.05) but just tied for 17th in EPA allowed per designed rush attempt.
Las Vegas added help on defense, including Kwity Paye, Quay Walker, Nakobe Dean, Folorunso Fatukasi, Taron Johnson, and Treydan Stukes.
Even with the reinforcements, the Dolphins have a uniquely explosive quarterback-running back combo.
Malik Willis and De'Von Achane can scoot.
Among 74 running backs with at least 150 rush attempts since 2023, Achane is first in yards per carry (5.62) and first in explosive run rate (16.6%).
Willis isn't a slouch, either.
Among 36 quarterbacks with at least 40 rushes since 2024, Willis is fourth in yards per carry (6.21) and first in explosive run rate (33.3%).
Even when Willis drops back, those drops often turn into rushes.
Willis' 14.5% scramble rate since 2024 is the highest among 76 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks.
Willis broke out as a passer in two seasons with the Packers.
However, it was a small sample, and he doesn't bring Matt LaFleur and Green Bay's pass-catching weapons with him to South Beach.
A heavy dose of running the ball from both teams should keep the clock running, and the shortcomings of the passing attacks could cap the scoring for both offenses, keeping the game under 40.5 points.