Week 7 NFL Best Bets: Against the Spread & Game Total Picks

NFL Best Bets: Week 7 Picks

• Panthers Over 23.5 Points
• Vikings -6.5

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NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Panthers Over 23.5 Points

The Panthers enter this week atop the NFC South with a 3-2 record.

They beat the Eagles in Philadelphia 25-14.

Conversely, the Buccaneers enter this week after a 26-19 home loss to the Steelers.

Tampa Bay had home-field and a rest advantage, and they lost.

The game also went to overtime.

Baker Mayfield was a full participant in practice this week and said of his thumb, “It's strong enough to play.”

Mayfield's return probably isn't a cure-all for the Bucs.

According to Sumer Sports, among 39 quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this year, Mayfield is 39th, dead last, in expected points added (EPA) per play.

Jalon Daniels is 34th on that list.

Mayfield is a volatile quarterback, and it's unlikely that over a larger sample he'd finish behind Daniels, a rookie undrafted free agent (UDFA).

Still, it speaks to Mayfield's struggles this year, and his thumb being “strong enough to play” doesn't mean it's completely healthy.

Bryce Young has been at the other end of the spectrum.

He is tied for eighth in EPA per play among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this year.

If Mayfield can't get out of his own way, Carolina's offense can benefit from short fields and more possessions.

That said, if gunslinger Mayfield shows up, Young's playing at a high enough level to go blow for blow in a shootout environment.

Offensive coordinator Brad Idzik is also trusting his blossoming quarterback.

The Panthers rank second in pass rate over expected (7.3% PROE) and third in neutral pace.

Carolina's offensive tendencies align with how teams have attacked the Bucs.

Tampa Bay has faced the fourth-highest PROE (5.3%) this year.

Tampa Bay's defense hasn't been a disaster.

They rank 12th in points allowed per game (20.7), 10th in points allowed per drive (1.82), tied for eighth in yards allowed per play (5.0), ninth in success rate, and third in EPA allowed per play.

Their defensive success needs context.

The Bucs allowed 33 points to the Bengals in Week 1.

Then they faced Deshaun Watson in Week 2, Carson Wentz in Week 3, the Packers working through a makeshift offensive line in Week 4, the Cowboys on a short week in Week 5, and old-man Aaron Rodgers in Week 6.

They haven't faced a murderer's row of quarterbacks and offenses.

The Panthers will be their stiffest challenge since Week 1 or possibly to this point this year.

Carolina ranks fourth in points per game (29.2), eighth in points per drive (2.40), tied for fifth in yards per play (5.9), 17th in success rate, and tied for seventh in EPA per play.

The Panthers have exceeded 23.5 points in four of five games this year and should do so again this week.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Vikings -6.5

The vibes couldn't be different for the 2-4 Colts and the 5-0 Vikings.

Indianapolis fired GM Chris Ballard this week.

Minnesota is coming off the bye and is one of only two remaining undefeated teams.

The Vikings will have a rest-and-preparation advantage off the bye, and the Colts just handed the Titans their first win of the year in Week 6.

Brian Flores‘ defense has been the driving force behind their 5-0 start.

The Vikings rank first in defensive points allowed per game (11.6), first in points allowed per drive (1.07), tied for second in yards allowed per play (4.6), first in EPA allowed per play, first in defensive success rate, first in pressure rate, first in sack rate, and tied for third in turnovers forced (10).

Minnesota has pinned its ears back, with an NFL-high 73.9% blitz rate.

Daniel Jones is ill-equipped for this matchup.

Among 32 quarterbacks with at least 30 blitzed dropbacks, Jones is 20th in completion percentage (59.2%), 24th in yards per pass attempt (5.70), 24th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (4.08), 18th in sack rate (7.7%), and 22nd in turnover-worthy-throw rate (4.2%).

Flores' heavy blitzing tendencies can lead to allowing some explosives, but Jones doesn't bring explosives to the table, and his pass-catching weapons lack any semblance of juice.

Minnesota's offense has struggled, but key contributors like Kyler Murray, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Mason, T.J. Hockenson, and Christian Darrisaw have missed time.

The Vikings should be at full capacity on offense, including getting Mason back from injured reserve.

The Colts rank tied for 21st in rushing yards allowed per game (122.5) and tied for 27th in rushing yards allowed per play (4.8).

So, Mason's return will give the Vikings a competent one-two punch of him and Aaron Jones to attack the Colts on the ground.

Sauce Gardner is considered week-to-week with a calf injury.

His likely absence would also benefit Minnesota's passing attack.

A 6.5-point spread would typically be a little rich for an offense of Minnesota's caliber.

Still, there are reasonable excuses for their lackluster performance so far, and the defense should stuff the Colts in a locker and give them swirlies at will.