It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2025 NFL season.
In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some over and under future bets worth considering at each position group.
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| 2025 Best Player Prop Bets |
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| Best QB Over Bets 2025 |
| Best QB Under Bets 2025 |
| Best RB Over Bets 2025 |
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| Best WR Over Bets 2025 (Coming Soon) |
| Best WR Under Bets 2025 (Coming Soon) |
While some might think fantasy football projections are just for those drafting teams this summer, they can be used as a guide to help identify overvalued or undervalued players in the current betting markets, as well as in fantasy drafts.
The NFL season is full of chaos and injuries, but projections provide an estimate of median outcomes at player and team levels.
Using our projections, I will identify a couple of players at each position who are higher or lower than the current market and how to bet those situations.
Get Access to Rich Hribar's Projections in Our Sharp Football Draft Kit!
Up next: which quarterback prop bet UNDERS are likely to hit in the 2025 NFL season?
Baker Mayfield Props: Why You Should Bet the Under
Current Over/Unders for Baker Mayfield:
- 29.5 Passing TDs (-115) FanDuel
Why You Should Bet the Under:
There is no doubt the Buccaneers offense shocked the prognosticators last season, but replicating that success will be difficult.
Several red flags scream negative touchdown regression for an offense that scored the second-most points over projected last season.
Mayfield has a career 5% touchdown rate average over his 7 seasons, but he is coming off a season in which he had a 7.2% TD rate, nearly 2% above his previous high.
The Bucs face the Texans, Jets, and Eagles secondaries in September, all rated in the top 10 by Sharp Football staff, which will prove to be a bigger task with a new offensive coordinator and in the absence of PFF’s highest graded pass blocking left tackle, Tristan Wirfs.
Mayfield had his best success across the board as a passer in 2024, and it’s no coincidence that he was pressured on 24.1% of dropbacks, the lowest rate of his career.
Wirfs is expected to miss the opening month of the season and likely will require a couple of game ramp up to get up to full speed, according to injury experts.
Josh Grizzard was on the Bucs staff last season but has never called a game before, which could disrupt the offense early in the season.
The Sharp Football projections still give Mayfield over 4,100 passing yards, a total only six quarterbacks eclipsed last season, but they project a significant drop in passing touchdowns.
As mentioned in Rich Hribar’s team scoring article, the Buccaneers scored a touchdown on 32.9% of their possessions last season, and 78% of teams that scored a touchdown on more than 30% of their drives scored fewer touchdowns the following season, with an average loss of 13 touchdowns.
Before last season, Mayfield had a career high of 28 passing touchdowns, which he set in his first season as a Buccaneer.
Mayfield finished as the fourth-highest scoring fantasy quarterback last year and is currently the seventh quarterback being drafted, according to DraftKings ADP, but that is still too high considering the regression Mayfield could see in the touchdown department.
Our projections have Mayfield projected outside of the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks, which is a great reminder for fantasy gamers to not chase quarterbacks off career highs.
2025 Player Prop Bet Recommendation:
- Baker Mayfield Under 29.5 Passing TDs (-115) FD
Bo Nix Props: Why You Should Bet the Under
Current Over/Unders for Bo Nix:
- 24.5 Passing TDs (-110) DraftKings
Why You Should Bet the Under:
This is a bit of a contrarian selection since second-year quarterbacks tend to show improvement after their rookie season.
Fellow sophomore quarterback Drake Maye was selected in the previous article to go over his season totals, but Nix surprised many in his rookie season with his production.
Despite the success as a rookie, there are a few factors that could limit a sophomore leap.
Defensive coordinators now have an entire year of film on Nix, who struggled against some of the better secondaries in his rookie season.
Nix is projected to play a top-10 most difficult schedule of pass defenses in 2025.
The Broncos boast an elite defense that led the league in EPA per play while finishing second in yards per play and success rate allowed.
That defense is projected to play a bottom-five schedule of offenses this season.
The defense is possibly better on paper this season, reducing the likelihood that the Broncos will need to get into shootouts to win.
The Broncos also have a top-five rated offensive line, used second-round draft capital on RJ Harvey, and signed veteran J.K. Dobbins.
After the season, it was revealed that Nix had been dealing with a back fracture, which is a reminder that season long projections and bets have added health variance.
The Sharp Football projections have Nix projected for 23.7 touchdowns, assuming he plays the entire season.
Our projections have Nix projected 20th in fantasy points scored, and he is currently eighth in quarterback ADP.
Regardless of the projection, scoring outside of the top-five quarterbacks is relatively flat, making arbitrage selections like Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy, who are selected more than two rounds later according to ADP, better values at the position.
2025 Player Prop Bet Recommendation:
- Bo Nix Under 24.5 Passing TDs (-110) DraftKings