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Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will be without star wide receiver Stefon Diggs, but NFL analyst Warren Sharp believes their offense will remain productive in 2024.
He outlines, in a recent tweet, the Bills’ productivity with multiple tight end sets.
Through Week 5, the Bills used 2+ TEs on 44.8% of snaps.
That was a HIGHER rate than they used 3+ wide receivers. They used the #2 highest rate of 2+ TE sets in the league.
Then Dalton Kincaid missed Week 6. When he returned in Week 7, the Bills were only able to get back to a 23% usage rate.
And then Dawson Knox was injured and missed the next five weeks.
Buffalo cranked up their TE usage in Weeks 14 and 15 upon his return (34% and 38% respectively), but Knox was not a significant contributor following the wrist injury.
After 28 targets and 15 receptions through Week 7, he had just 8 targets over his final five games of the year.
The fact the Bills were juggling offensive personnel usage due to injuries may have contributed to the firing of OC Ken Dorsey after the team’s disappointing 24-22 loss to the Denver Broncos, which dropped their record to 5-5.
This move was influenced by a series of underwhelming performances and a significant dip in offensive production, including a high number of turnovers and inconsistent play from Allen.
Dorsey was fired after Week 10.
Through Week 10, look at the Bills’ early down splits when they were using 2-TEs vs. only 1:
- Passes with 2 TEs: +0.43 EPA/att, 60% success, 9.1 YPA (77 att)
- Passes with 1 TE: -0.01 EPA/att, 49% success, 7.4 YPA (181 att)
Passes were incredible with 2+ TEs. Rushes were not, however:
- Rushes with 2 TEs: -0.16 EPA/att, 30% success, 3.6 YPC (50 att)
- Rushes with 1 TE: +0.03 EPA/att, 41% success, 5.6 YPC (113 att)
So when Knox went down and the Bills couldn’t use virtually any 2 TE sets in Weeks 8, 9, and 10, the high-efficiency passes were gone.
In those three weeks, the Bills got +0.03 EPA/att, 45% success, and 7.6 YPA out of their 11 personnel passing but had no 2+ TE passing upside to help supplement it.
The biggest difference came inside the red zone.
Through Week 10, on all downs:
- Passes with 2 TEs: +0.82 EPA/att, 57% success, 77% completion rate, 39% TD rate
- Passes with 1 TE: -0.03 EPA/att, 38% success, 65% completion rate, 31% TD rate
The expectation in 2024 is for the Bills to return to heavily using multi-TE sets.
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Bills Over/Under Wins, 2024:
The Bills are predicted to win 10.5 games in 2024, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Bills Win Total in 2024
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
While the offense looks much weaker after losing both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, Josh Allen is the X-factor that makes this offense tick.
Allen only has 246 dropbacks without Diggs on the field since the receiver joined the team in 2020, but his 0.22 EPA per play on those dropbacks would have ranked second among qualifying quarterbacks last season.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
In the absence of last year’s top two receivers, the Bills made moves in the offseason to acquire Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool, and Marquez Valdes–Scantling.
They also used their second-round draft pick to take FSU wideout Keon Coleman.
Coleman, MVS, and Claypool are all 6-foot-3 or taller, giving Allen some large targets in place of last season’s all-star corps.
» Bet the Bills Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Bills Win Total in 2024
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
Buffalo will begin the season having lost their entire starting secondary from 2023.
Tre’Davious White, Dane Jackson, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde all moved on.
The Bills are projected to face the #1 most difficult schedule of offenses and a lineup of top-10 quarterbacks including Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
Buffalo comes into this season with the second largest dead cap hit in the NFL with $61.2 million going to players no longer on the roster.
Over half of that figure belongs to Stefon Diggs.
Cap increases allocated to Josh Allen, Von Miller, and Matt Milano on top of that dead cap space have more than doubled the collective cap hit for that group.