Sharp Football’s Rich Hribrar breaks down this Bengals vs Bills AFC Divisional matchup for the 3:00pm ET kickoff on Sunday, Jan 22:
We are getting another opportunity for these teams to match up after their Week 17 showdown on Monday Night Football was rightfully called off due to the unfortunate injury to Damar Hamlin in the first quarter.
Both of these teams were not at their best in the Wild Card Round. The Bills allowed a league-low 3.3 yards per play and 231 total yards last week but had to sweat out a 34-31 win due to the number of mistakes they made during the game. The Bills had another three turnovers and have now turned the ball over on 15.5% of their possessions. Only the Colts (16.9%) have a higher rate.
The Bengals were once again in another hell game with the Ravens, who have played them well all season. Cincinnati came out ahead 24-17 on the strength of a 98-yard fumble return touchdown by Sam Hubbard in the fourth quarter that was a seismic shift in the outcome and the last points scored in the game.
This will be the first official game played between Josh Allen and Joe Burrow and we are linking up two of the league’s best offenses. The Bills are fourth in the NFL in points per drive (2.48) while the Bengals are seventh (2.33). Only the Chiefs have scored on a higher percentage of their drives than the Bills (44.4%) while the Bengals are eighth (41.3%).
Defensively, both are also top-10 units with the Bills allowing 1.64 points per drive (fifth) and the Bengals 1.76 points per drive (ninth).
The Bengals have really made their mark this season by making sure that they score touchdowns when they do score points and preventing touchdowns when they allow scoring plays. Cincinnati has scored a touchdown on 67.1% of their scoring plays this season (fourth in the league) while allowing a touchdown on just 47.8% of the scoring plays they’ve allowed (third).
» Read the full Bengals vs Bills Worksheet breakdown
Bengals vs Bills Prediction
The Bills are predicted to win this AFC Divisional game with a 69.23% implied probability based on current betting lines. The moneyline model also predicts the Bills will win with 72.8% confidence.
» Bet it Now: Bills vs Bengals
Bengals vs Bills Odds, Spread, Totals & Moneyline:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bengals | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +180 |
| Bills | -4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -225 |
Bengals vs Bills Team Comparison:
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Spread | -4.5 | ||
| 21.75 | Implied Total | 26.25 | ||
| 26 | 7 | Points/Gm | 28.8 | 2 |
| 19.9 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 18.6 | 3 |
| 65.1 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 65.2 | 9 |
| 62.5 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.7 | 11 |
| 5.4 | 15 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 2 |
| 5.4 | 17 | Def. Yards/Play | 5 | 5 |
| 37.67% | 29 | Rush% | 41.12% | 18 |
| 62.33% | 4 | Pass% | 58.88% | 15 |
| 41.62% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 38.18% | 3 |
| 58.38% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 61.82% | 30 |
Bengals Best Bets Against the Spread
- The Bengals have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.20 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Bengals have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+6.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Bengals have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.65 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Bengals have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Bills Best Bets Against the Spread:
- The Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Bills have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Bills have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+5.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 45% ROI)
First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction & Bet for Bengals vs Bills:
Ja’Marr Chase (WR, Bengals) is our pick for the 1st TD scorer bet in this AFC Divisional matchup.
Khalil Shakir (WR, Bills) is our pick for an Anytime TD scorer bet in this AFC Divisional matchup.
» Get Anytime & 1st TD Scorer Bets for every Wild Card game
Bengals Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals have gone 12-5 (+6.35 Units / 33.87% ROI).
- Bengals are 13-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 9.05% ROI
- Bengals are 7-9 when betting the Over for -2.95 Units / -15.73% ROI
- Bengals are 9-7 when betting the Under for +1.3 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 8-8 (-0.75 Units / -4.01% ROI).
- Bills are 14-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 5.52% ROI
- Bills are 7-10 when betting the Over for -4 Units / -21.39% ROI
- Bills are 10-7 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / 12.3% ROI
Continue reading from BetMGM’s Bills vs Bengals game breakdown
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This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:
- Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
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- Final 2022 NFL Computer Totals: 37-15 (71%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Regular Season: 126-94 (57%)
It’s truly been a great season and we’re excited for the playoffs, as it’s been extremely good to us in years past.
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