The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Buffalo Bills could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Buffalo Bills 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-Joe Brady has been promoted to the head coach of the Bills, and he’ll retain play-calling duties. In Brady’s first full season as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator in 2024, the Bills were second in points per drive (2.90) and points per game (30.9). The Bills remained a top-five scoring offense in 2025, ranking third in points per drive (2.64) and tied for fourth in points per game (28.3).
-Josh Allen was fifth in EPA per play in 2025 among qualified quarterbacks after finishing third in EPA per play in his MVP campaign in 2024. He last finished outside the top five in EPA per play among quarterbacks in 2021, when he ranked eighth. As long as Allen is suiting up, the Bills have an opportunity to hang with any offense, and he hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season in 2018.
-The Bills rank second in net rest in 2026. Buffalo has been rest sensitive in recent years, going just 15-13 with a rest disadvantage since 2020. The Bills have gone 62-18 (.775) in 80 games with no rest disadvantage in that timeframe.
Reasons for the Under
-The Bills had a potent offense in 2025, but it also benefited from good health. Their starting offensive line combined to miss only four games due to injury, while Josh Allen, James Cook, and Khalil Shakir missed none with injuries.
-The Bills were a sieve on run defense, ranking 28th in rushing yards allowed per game (136.2), 30th in yards allowed per carry (5.1), 26th in yards allowed before contact per carry (1.58), and 32nd in yards allowed after contact per carry (3.56). Despite their struggles against the run, the Bills didn’t add a run-stuffer to the interior of their defensive line, and their biggest addition at off-ball linebacker was fourth-round pick Kaleb Elarms-Orr.
-Offensive line coach Aaron Kromer announced his retirement after spending the previous four years in that position for the Bills. In addition to replacing David Edwards at guard with Alec Anderson, Austin Corbett, or another unproven option, the club’s reliable offensive line will need to adjust to a new voice guiding the room. Kromer, while not holding the official title of run-game coordinator, had a significant influence on the development of the rushing attack during the week and even on play-calling during games.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
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- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
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- Penalty analysis for all 32 NFL teams