The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Cincinnati Bengals could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Cincinnati Bengals 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-Joe Burrow started only eight games in 2025 because of a turf toe injury he suffered in Week 2, which required surgery. Burrow was 13th in EPA per play and fourth in passing touchdown rate among qualified quarterbacks last year, and the Bengals went 5-3 in Burrow’s eight starts.
-The benefit of losing eight of nine games without Burrow last year and finishing in third place in the AFC North with a 6-11 record is a third-place schedule in 2026. The Bengals have the third-easiest strength of schedule in 2026, after ranking 20th in 2025.
-While the offense has firepower, the Bengals made some offseason changes to improve their dreadful defense. Their defensive line will look drastically different after signing Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe in free agency and swinging a trade for Dexter Lawrence. The backend received a meaningful addition, too. Bryan Cook can shore up one of the safety positions.
Reasons for the Under
-The Bengals needed to make sweeping changes on defense because it was a disaster last season. Cincinnati was 27th in scoring defense (25.1 points per game), 27th in points allowed per drive (2.44), and 32nd in yards allowed per play (6.2). The organization didn’t move on from Al Golden as their defensive coordinator, so they’ll need to hope he does a better job with the new pieces.
-Cincinnati is running back the same starting five on their offensive line. Perhaps Amarius Mims can take another step forward in his third professional season, and perhaps Dylan Fairchild can improve as a sophomore. However, the Bengals had a bottom-tier offensive line in pass protection last season. In addition to missing nine games last season, Burrow missed seven in 2023. The offensive line must perform better to keep Burrow upright and healthy.
-Even in a 6-win season, things didn’t all go wrong for the Bengals. Instead, they were second in EPA from offensive penalties and EPA from defensive penalties. The Bengals should regress in penalty luck on offense, defense, or both this year.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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