Sharp Football’s Rich Hribrar breaks down this 49ers vs Cowboys NFC Divisional matchup for the 6:30pm ET kickoff on Sunday, Jan 22:
One of the all-time great postseason rivalries gets another chapter. This will be the sixth time that the 49ers and Cowboys have played in the postseason and the second time in as many years. Both of these teams faced off in the Wild Card Round a year ago, with the 49ers coming out on top 23-17.
This week features two of the hottest teams since the middle of the season.
The 49ers have won 11 games in a row with a point differential of +179 points. The next closest team to San Francisco in point differential over that same span is the Cowboys at +112 points. Then the next closest team after that over that period was +77 points (both the Bills and Eagles).
San Francisco has scored fewer than 21 points in just one of those 11 games with 30 or more points in eight of them. They have only faced two defenses over that span that were in the top 10 in defensive EPA per snap in the Saints (who they scored only 13 points against) and the Commanders (who they roasted for 37 points). Dallas is third in the NFL in EPA per snap, just behind this San Francisco defense.
Dallas quickly erased a stale Week 18 performance against the Commanders by trampling the Bucs on Monday night. Since Dak Prescott returned in Week 7, Dallas is 9-3, trailing only the 49ers in points per drive (2.72) over that span. They led the league in touchdown rate per drive (34.8%), ranking second in red zone touchdown rate (80.4%) and first in third down conversion rate (52.4%) during that period.
This will also be a test for Dallas as San Francisco is the best defense they have faced this season. The Cowboys do have a 40-point showing against the Eagles on their resume, but the only other top-10 defense they faced over that period was the Commanders, who they had their worst showing against over that same period (who the 49ers also steamrolled).
This matchup also works both ways. The 49ers’ defense faced just two offenses in the top 10 in EPA per play at the time they played in the Chiefs and Dolphins. They had trouble stopping the Chiefs (44 points) but limited the Dolphins to 17 points in Week 13. San Francisco faced just one other team higher than the Cowboys in scoring rate per drive that was not the Chiefs. That was the Raiders, who scored 34 points.
Needless to say, there is a ton of strength on strength here. These are the two best offenses in the league since the middle of the season while both defenses have solid resumes at the front of the league. The 49ers have allowed a league-low 1.46 points per drive while the Cowboys are third (1.62). San Francisco has allowed 27.8 yards per drive (fourth) while Dallas has allowed 28.6 yards per drive (eighth).
The 49ers do have the added rest here playing on Saturday last week while the Cowboys played on Monday night. This will also be the fourth consecutive road game for Dallas and their fifth road game over the past six weeks. The 49ers were nearly in a similar spot a year ago, losing their fourth straight road game in the NFC Title game a year ago, which was their fifth road game over a six-week window.
» Read the full 49ers vs Cowboys Worksheet breakdown
49ers vs Cowboys Prediction
The 49ers are predicted to win this NFC Divisional game with a 64.91% implied probability based on current betting lines. The moneyline model also predicts the 49ers will win with 60.5% confidence.
» Bet it Now: 49ers vs Cowboys
49ers vs Cowboys Odds, Spread, Totals & Moneyline:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Cowboys | +3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +150 |
| 49ers | -3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -185 |
49ers vs Cowboys Team Comparison:
| Dallas | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 21.5 | Implied Total | 25 | ||
| 27.7 | 4 | Points/Gm | 27.3 | 5 |
| 19.8 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 16.7 | 1 |
| 65.7 | 6 | Plays/Gm | 61.7 | 21 |
| 65.6 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.5 | 5 |
| 5.5 | 14 | Off. Yards/Play | 6 | 3 |
| 5.1 | 8 | Def. Yards/Play | 5 | 4 |
| 47.84% | 8 | Rush% | 48.33% | 7 |
| 52.16% | 25 | Pass% | 51.67% | 26 |
| 43.10% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 38.02% | 2 |
| 56.90% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 61.98% | 31 |
49ers Best Bets Against the Spread
- The 49ers have hit the Moneyline in their last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The 49ers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- The 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- The 49ers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- The 49ers have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 34% ROI)
Cowboys Best Bets Against the Spread:
- The Cowboys have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cowboys have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cowboys have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.55 Units / 41% ROI)
First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction & Bet for 49ers vs Cowboys:
Michael Gallup is our pick for the 1st TD Scorer bet in this NFC Divisional Round matchup.
Brandon Aiyuk is our pick for an anytime TD Scorer bet in this NFC Divisional Round matchup.
» Get Anytime & 1st TD Scorer Bets for every Divisional Round game
49ers Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers have gone 12-6 (+5.4 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- 49ers are 14-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 12.73% ROI
- 49ers are 10-8 when betting the Over for +1.2 Units / 6.06% ROI
- 49ers are 8-10 when betting the Under for -3 Units / -15.15% ROI
Cowboys Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys have gone 11-7 (+3.3 Units / 16.75% ROI).
- Cowboys are 13-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 9.92% ROI
- Cowboys are 9-9 when betting the Over for -0.9 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Cowboys are 9-9 when betting the Under for -0.9 Units / ROI
Continue reading from BetMGM’s Cowboys vs 49ers game breakdown
Don’t Miss out on our Playoff Recommendations
This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:
- Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Bowls: 18-8 (69%) including 6-0 (100%) on elevated plays
- Final 2022 NFL Futures: 17-5 (77%)
- Final 2022 NFL Regular Season: 92-63 (59%)
- Final 2022 NFL Computer Totals: 37-15 (71%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Regular Season: 126-94 (57%)
It’s truly been a great season and we’re excited for the playoffs, as it’s been extremely good to us in years past.
Historically, we’ve been outstanding on NFL Playoffs:
- 159-93 (62%) lifetime playoff record
- 25-10 (71%) lifetime Super Bowl record
- 16-6 (73%) on Super Bowl week releases last year (including props)
COUPON CODE for our Playoff Betting Packages:
As a THANK YOU for following us throughout the season, both our betting recommendations and the wonderful content the team produces on the site… we wanted to offer you an option to save and get on board for the playoffs with savings:
- Use coupon code SAVE100 for $100 off a Postseason-Long Postseason-Long All-Access Postseason betting package.
Hurry, as this sale ends soon AND even sooner, we’ll be releasing written game previews and NFL Playoff bets to follow and props when lines are posted.