The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Dallas Cowboys could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Dallas Cowboys 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-The Cowboys were fourth in yards per play (5.9), fifth in points per drive (2.56), and seventh in per-game scoring (27.7 points) last year. Dak Prescott is still the triggerman for the offense, the pass-catching corps is intact, and Javonte Williams is back after a renaissance season. The offense should keep them in any game.
-Dallas’ potent offense even left meat on the bone last year, despite a bevy of weapons that includes CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and, to a lesser extent, Jake Ferguson. Despite the skill-position talent, the Cowboys were 18th in red-zone touchdown rate (56.9%).
-The Cowboys were 30th in yards allowed per game (377.0), 31st in yards allowed per play (6.1), 32nd in explosive-play rate allowed, 32nd in points per drive allowed (2.88), and 32nd in defensive points allowed per game (29.9) last year. The defense felt a tangible in-season change after acquiring Quinnen Williams, with an uptick in sacks per pass attempt and an improved rate of third-down stops with Williams on the field. They continued to pour meaningful resources into all three levels of their defense in the offseason and replaced Matt Eberflus as the defensive coordinator with Christian Parker.
Reasons for the Under
-The Cowboys didn’t take advantage of a soft schedule last year, winning only seven games while playing the third-easiest schedule. Dallas stumbled against quality opponents last year, going only 1-5 against teams that made the playoffs. They’ll have fewer cupcakes on the schedule with the fourth-hardest strength of schedule in 2026.
-Dallas can’t chalk up losses last year to unfavorable penalties. The penalty margin and penalty yardage margin were razor-thin. Still, the penalty equation worked out extremely well for the Cowboys, as they were third in offensive penalty EPA and 11th in defensive penalty EPA.
-The Cowboys stayed largely healthy on offense last year. Their offense was ninth in offensive health in the NFL last season. CeeDee Lamb missed three games, but Dak Prescott, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson didn’t miss any games. Javonte Williams missed only Week 18.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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