2026 NFL Unders: Best Running Back Prop Bets
- Jonathan Taylor — Under 1224.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
- Chuba Hubbard — Under 700 Rushing Yards (-114)
Fantasy football projections, like those done by Rich Hribar, can be a guide to help identify overvalued or undervalued players in the current betting markets.
Using our projections, I will identify a couple of players at each position who we are lower on than the current market.
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Jonathan Taylor 2026 Over/Under Prediction
There is no denying that Jonathan Taylor is a workhorse running back, and he is coming off the second-best season of his career.
He led the league with 323 carries and racked up 1,585 rushing yards.
This is more a bet about volume regression and a bit of a fade on the Colts from a team perspective.
Over the past two seasons, Taylor has averaged 22.4 carries and 126 rushing yards in wins.
That average drops to 18.6 rushes and 76.4 yards in losses, a massive 50-yard discrepancy depending on game state.
Over the past four seasons, Taylor has averaged under 5.0 yards per carry in every season, making it likely that 260 to 280 carries are required to exceed the season-long total.
Although Taylor had his contract extended, Shane Steichen has mentioned the desire to decrease his workload.
The contract may give the Colts even more incentive to protect their investment.
Taylor had a league-high 86.7% of the running back carries last season, which is due for regression.
The Colts' season-long win total has trickled down this offseason.
Questions about the offense continue to pile up as Daniel Jones returns from an Achilles injury.
Alec Pierce has not started practicing following offseason surgery, and Josh Downs has already had a groin injury.
The Colts had the league's most efficient offense in the opening two months of 2025.
It will be difficult to repeat that offensive success if injuries mount up given the lack of receiver depth, which will result in fewer offensive plays and more trailing game scripts.
If the Colts do struggle, a distinct possibility according to betting markets, managing Taylor's workload becomes more likely down the stretch.
Taylor turns 27 this season, and his age introduces a layer of risk as he has only played 17 games in two of his first five seasons.
Should Taylor miss any time or the Colts struggle, reaching the required number of carries to eclipse 1,225 yards will be difficult.
This is not a bet questioning Taylor’s talent or ability.
It is a bet on volume reduction from 2025, which is a difficult season to replicate.
Taylor's 2025 production was outstanding, but it also represented a near-perfect environment for a high-end rushing total.
Jonathan Taylor Prop Bet Recommendation
- Under 1224.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
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Chuba Hubbard 2026 Over/Under Prediction
A 2021 fourth-round draft pick, Chuba Hubbard has exceeded expectations.
After two relatively pedestrian seasons to open his career, he put together two solid seasons, earning a contract extension with the Panthers.
However, 2025 was a lackluster season as Hubbard dealt with a calf injury.
This is an important season for Hubbard.
As early as next year, the Panthers can cut the veteran running back with little dead money.
Hubbard saw his role reduced to Rico Dowdle last season and faces competition from Jonathon Brooks, a former second-round pick whom Carolina invested significant draft capital in.
Brooks has generated buzz this offseason, and that was before Hubbard picked up a hamstring injury in camp.
If Hubbard is healthy, the backfield will likely start as a tandem, but the organization has incentive to give a larger role to the younger Brooks, which would limit Hubbard’s weekly touches.
Hubbard is coming off a season in which he did not create a single explosive run of 15 or more yards.
Without an injury to the younger Brooks, it is difficult to foresee a situation in which Hubbard receives an overwhelming majority of the team’s running back carries.
From Week 9 onward last year, Hubbard averaged 6.1 carries per game, handling 29.7% of the Panthers' running back carries.
He didn’t exceed 50% of the team's carries in any game during that stretch.
Brooks is theoretically a bigger threat to rushing volume than Dowdle, reducing the likelihood that Hubbard receives enough volume to exceed 700 yards.
Hubbard has averaged 3.8 yards or fewer per carry in three of his five seasons and 4.1 yards per carry over his career.
Based on his career average, he would need approximately 170 rush attempts, an average of 10 carries per game, to reach the season total.
The Panthers are favorites in only three games this season while projecting to have the third-most difficult schedule of opponents and the second-most difficult schedule of opposing defenses, which could hinder rushing volume on a team level if they are continuously in negative game scripts.
The Panthers have significant concerns on the offensive line entering 2026.
They will be without both starting tackles to open the season.
Ikem Ekwonu ruptured his patellar tendon in the playoffs, and Taylor Moton was diagnosed with blood clots and will be out for the foreseeable future.
The rushing volume and efficiency could be a problem for the backfield, and if carries are split for the entire season, Hubbard may come up short of the rushing total.
The case for betting Hubbard's 2026 rushing-yard total under isn't that he is going to struggle or incapable of producing.
It is a bet against him reaching the required number of carries in a committee on a team with a low win total and offensive line injuries.
Chuba Hubbard Prop Bet Recommendation
- Under 700 Rushing Yards (-114)