The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Denver Broncos could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Denver Broncos 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-The Broncos didn’t play mistake-free football in their 14-3 campaign. They routinely shot themselves in the foot and were heavily penalized, including untimely penalties. As a result, they were 30th in offensive penalty EPA, 28th in defensive penalty EPA, and dead last in net penalty EPA. They also racked up the most total penalty yards.
-Denver’s opponents nailed field goals at a blistering 94.9% clip (31st). Conversely, the Broncos converted 87.5% of their field goals, which ranked 14th. They were also 25th in fumble luck, -2.9 net compared to expectation.
-The Broncos had a stingy defense last season. They were second in yards allowed per game (277.2), first in yards allowed per play (4.5), third in points allowed per drive (1.62), fifth in defensive points allowed per game (18.2), third in pressure rate, and first in sacks per pass attempt rate. Denver kept the nucleus of the defense intact, with the top 10 defenders and 17 of their top 20 defenders in defensive snaps last season returning for 2026. There’s also room for them to force more turnovers after ranking 11th with 17.
Reasons for the Under
-Denver had a knack for pulling out nail-biters last year. In fact, they were first in one-score wins (11) and lost only two one-score games, resulting in an NFL-high .846 win percentage in one-score games in 2025. The Broncos can’t be expected to escape one-score games with victories at that clip again in 2026.
-The Broncos stayed healthy at an above-average rate last year. They were eighth in total player health. However, they were especially fortunate on defense, ranking third in defensive player health.
-Trailing at the half wasn’t unusual for the Broncos last year. They trailed at halftime in seven games, which ranked midpack. Denver gutted out wins in five of those contests. Their .714 winning percentage when trailing at the half was the NFL’s best, much higher than the NFL’s average of a .238 winning percentage for teams that trailed at the half in 2025.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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