Should You Bet the Over/Under Derek Carr Prop Bet for Passing Yards in 2021?

It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group. 

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Why You Should Bet the OVER on Derek Carr’s Passing Yards Prop Bet

  • The Raiders’ young receiving corps is more experienced this year
  • Derek Carr excels throwing downfield
  • Favorable game scripts — otherwise known as game flow — which refers to the scoring margin at any point in a game.

In each of the last three years, Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 16 games, which should give us some confidence he can eclipse these numbers in a 17-game season.

Here are the current Over/Under lines for Derek Carr’s passing yards from several legal online sportsbooks.

  • 4025.5 passing yards at BetMGM
  • 4075.5 passing yards at FanDuel
  • 4100.5 passing yards at DraftKings

Carr should also benefit from receivers Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards having a full offseason with the team. Though both receivers struggled as rookies, the limited offseason workouts in 2020 was plausibly a factor. 

Ruggs (speed) and Edwards (size) have nice complementary traits to potentially open up the downfield passing game. 

In 2020, Carr ranked 10th out of 26 qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage on throws 20+ yards downfield, but led the league in on-target rate. So if Ruggs and Edwards take a step forward in their development, this could turn into a potent downfield passing attack. 

Game scripts should also force Carr to throw at a high rate this season. Currently, Las Vegas is an underdog of a field goal or more in nine contests.