Dolphins vs Bengals Prediction, Odds & Prop Bets – Week 4, Thursday Night Football

  • The Bengals (1-2) are -4 point favorites vs the Dolphins (3-0)
  • Total (Over/Under): 47 points
  • Watch the game on Amazon Prime Video

The Miami Dolphins (3-0) visit Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Cincinnati for Thursday Night Football.

The Bengals are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Dolphins vs. Bengals Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.

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Dolphins vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

Spread Total (O/U) Moneyline
Dolphins +4 -110 47 -110 +165
Bengals -4 -110 47 -110 -200

Dolphins vs. Bengals Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this Week 4 game with 67.5% confidence.

Dolphins vs Bengals Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread with 61.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dolphins and Bengals, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.

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Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 6 away games (+6.05 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Teddy Bridgewater has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)

Best Bengals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joe Burrow has hit the Completions Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+4.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Joe Mixon has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Joe Burrow has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Tee Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.40 Units / 20% ROI)
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  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+14.70 Units / 72% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 19 games (+14.30 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 3Q Spread in 16 of their last 19 games (+13.05 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 14 games (+11.85 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+10.70 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 53% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 3-0 (+3 Units / 88.24% ROI).

  • Dolphins are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 116.67% ROI
  • Dolphins are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Dolphins are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals have gone 1-2 (-1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI).

  • Bengals are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.7 Units / -60.64% ROI
  • Bengals are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI
  • Bengals are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 92.31% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Dolphins are 5-2 (.714) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .445.

The Dolphins were 4-2 (.667) vs top 10 defenses last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .447.

The Dolphins were 6-1 (.857) vs bottom 10 run defenses last season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .635.

The Dolphins are 6-1 (.857) vs bottom 10 run defenses since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .610.

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Bengals were 1-5 (.167) vs top 10 pass defenses last season — tied for 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .471.

The Bengals were 1-4 (.200) vs top 10 defenses last season — tied for 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.

The Bengals are 1-4 (.200) vs top 10 defenses since the 2021 season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.

The Bengals are 1-6 (.143) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .465.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have run 53.1% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — third-best in NFL. Dolphins have allowed their opponents to run 51.3% of plays in their territory this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

The Bengals have a third down conversion rate of 45.6% in the second half since the 2021 season — fifth-best in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 47.1% in the second half since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Bengals are averaging just 2.5 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field this season — worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed just 3.2 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left this season — tied for third-best in NFL.

Dolphins TEs have 68.0 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Bengals have allowed an average of65.2 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL.

The Dolphins are averaging just 2.8 yards per carry on first down this season — second-worst in NFL. The Bengals have allowed just 3.6 yards per carry on first down this season — fifth-best in NFL.

Dolphins RBs have averaged just 75.0 rushing yards per game since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL. The Bengals have allowed an average of just 100.5 rushing yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins have converted first downs on 8 of 15 plays (53%) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts in the 1st half since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins had a third down conversion rate of 6% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Bengals had 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

Bengals QBs have been sacked 15 times this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Bengals have run 62% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 20% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed 310.3 receiving yards per game (931/3) this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 246.6.

The Dolphins have been flagged 0 times for 10+ yards on defense this season — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Dolphins’ opponents did not attempt a two-point conversion (39 PATs) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

Only 6% of the plays run against the Bengals have been in the red zone in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Bengals defense did not allow a TD in Week 3 — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Bengals defense has allowed a passer rating of just 46.6 in the red zone (13 Pass Attempts) since Week 18 of the 2021 Season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.7.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of pass attempts in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.


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