- The Bengals (1-2) are -4 point favorites vs the Dolphins (3-0)
- Total (Over/Under): 47 points
- Watch the game on Amazon Prime Video
The Miami Dolphins (3-0) visit Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Cincinnati for Thursday Night Football.
The Bengals are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).
The Dolphins vs. Bengals Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4
Dolphins vs. Bengals Prediction for Week 4
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this Week 4 game with 67.5% confidence.
Dolphins vs Bengals Spread Prediction for Week 4
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread with 61.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dolphins and Bengals, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Myles Gaskin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 6 away games (+6.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Teddy Bridgewater has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Myles Gaskin has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
Best Bengals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joe Burrow has hit the Completions Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+4.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Joe Mixon has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Joe Burrow has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Tee Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.40 Units / 20% ROI)
Dolphins Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+14.70 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
Bengals Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 19 games (+14.30 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 3Q Spread in 16 of their last 19 games (+13.05 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 14 games (+11.85 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+10.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 53% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 3-0 (+3 Units / 88.24% ROI).
- Dolphins are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 116.67% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Dolphins are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI
Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals have gone 1-2 (-1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI).
- Bengals are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.7 Units / -60.64% ROI
- Bengals are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI
- Bengals are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 92.31% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals
The Dolphins are 5-2 (.714) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .445.
The Dolphins were 4-2 (.667) vs top 10 defenses last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .447.
The Dolphins were 6-1 (.857) vs bottom 10 run defenses last season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .635.
The Dolphins are 6-1 (.857) vs bottom 10 run defenses since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .610.
Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Bengals were 1-5 (.167) vs top 10 pass defenses last season — tied for 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .471.
The Bengals were 1-4 (.200) vs top 10 defenses last season — tied for 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.
The Bengals are 1-4 (.200) vs top 10 defenses since the 2021 season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.
The Bengals are 1-6 (.143) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .465.
Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have run 53.1% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — third-best in NFL. Dolphins have allowed their opponents to run 51.3% of plays in their territory this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
The Bengals have a third down conversion rate of 45.6% in the second half since the 2021 season — fifth-best in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 47.1% in the second half since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.
The Bengals are averaging just 2.5 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field this season — worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed just 3.2 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
Dolphins TEs have 68.0 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Bengals have allowed an average of65.2 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins are averaging just 2.8 yards per carry on first down this season — second-worst in NFL. The Bengals have allowed just 3.6 yards per carry on first down this season — fifth-best in NFL.
Dolphins RBs have averaged just 75.0 rushing yards per game since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL. The Bengals have allowed an average of just 100.5 rushing yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 4
The Dolphins ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Dolphins have converted first downs on 8 of 15 plays (53%) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
The Dolphins have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts in the 1st half since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Dolphins had a third down conversion rate of 6% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats for Week 4
The Bengals had 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
Bengals QBs have been sacked 15 times this season — tied for most in NFL.
The Bengals have run 62% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Bengals have run successful plays on 20% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 4
25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Dolphins defense has allowed 310.3 receiving yards per game (931/3) this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 246.6.
The Dolphins have been flagged 0 times for 10+ yards on defense this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
The Dolphins’ opponents did not attempt a two-point conversion (39 PATs) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 10%.
Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats for Week 4
Only 6% of the plays run against the Bengals have been in the red zone in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Bengals defense did not allow a TD in Week 3 — tied for fewest in NFL.
The Bengals defense has allowed a passer rating of just 46.6 in the red zone (13 Pass Attempts) since Week 18 of the 2021 Season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.7.
The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of pass attempts in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
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