Georgia vs. Ole Miss, Current Betting Odds:
- Georgia -3.5 points
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Georgia vs. Ole Miss Best Bet Prediction:
- Georgia -3.5 points
Kirby Smart has a better, more experienced defense than a season ago, so let's play Georgia against the spread.
Georgia's Key Matchup on Offense
As usual, Georgia leans on the power running game to a significant degree, but this year's Bulldogs squad looks like a more serious title contender because of its ability to generate big plays.
In 2025, Georgia ranked 100th in explosive play rate, generating 20 or more yards on just 5.8% of plays.
Led by quarterback Gunner Stockton, this year's team ranks fourth.
That should make Pete Golding nervous, because his Ole Miss defense ranks 123rd by the same metric.
One of the issues has been Ole Miss' inability to consistently pressure the quarterback, an area in which Golding's squad will be at a clear disadvantage in this game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Georgia: ranked 3rd in pressure rate allowed
- Ole Miss: ranked 69th in pressure rate generated
Despite these concerning numbers, Ole Miss still ranks a respectable 33rd in opponent-adjusted scoring defense.
The key to that discrepancy has been a 47% red-zone touchdown rate allowed, the 22nd-best percentage in the nation.
However, Georgia's offense ranks seventh by the same metric.
To make matters worse for the Ole Miss defense, four defensive starters appear on this week's injury report.
While some of them may ultimately suit up, a physical game against Georgia is not the ideal week to have banged-up defense.
Ole Miss's Key Matchup on Offense
Ole Miss racked up almost 1,000 yards of offense in two games against Georgia last season in large part due to its quick-strike passing attack.
However, Trinidad Chambliss has not been as dominant on quick dropbacks this season, while the Georgia defense has been much improved.
Ole Miss gets rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds 53% of the time, the nation's 26th-highest rate, according to Pro Football Focus.
That was a winning strategy under Lane Kiffin, but check out the numbers this year compared to 2025:
- 2026: 7.0 yards per attempt, ranked 41st
- 2025: 8.4 yards per attempt, ranked 5th
One of the reasons for the dropoff in production has been a lack of production after the catch by Ole Miss' receivers.
Ole Miss ranks 114th in yards after catch per reception and 113th in broken/missed tackle rate after receptions, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Although there's a new play-caller in Oxford, coordinator John David Baker previously coached under Kiffin and is running a similar offense, so the steep drop-off is somewhat surprising.
The Ole Miss passing game has still been relatively effective overall, but this year's Georgia team appears to be built to stop this style of offense.
Take a look at Georgia's defensive metrics on dropbacks of 2.5 seconds or less:
- 5.0 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 8th
- 22% pressure rate generated, ranked 7th
Georgia also probably doesn't have to worry about giving up big plays to this year's Ole Miss squad, something which proved problematic in last year's meetings.
In 2025, Ole Miss ranked 12th in the nation in explosive play rate, generating 20 or more yards on 8.6% of plays.
This year's squad ranks 81st.
Final Thoughts on Ole Miss vs. Georgia Best Bets
Bet on an improved Bulldogs defense giving Chambliss some trouble and play Georgia against the spread.
Georgia's defense was relatively inexperienced last year, which likely explains some of the issues it had containing Ole Miss.
This year's squad returned eight starters and has returned to its status as one of the top units in the nation.