Kentucky vs. Tennessee, Current Betting Odds:
- Tennessee -6.5 points
Find the odds for the top games every week of the college football season
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Best Bet Prediction:
- Kentucky +6.5 points
Both teams should be able to run the ball and shorten the game, increasing the chances of a close contest, so let's take the points and play Kentucky against the spread.
When Kentucky is on Offense
Kentucky runs a slightly pass-heavy offense under head coach Will Stein and coordinator Joe Sloan.
The Wildcats have a pass rate 2.4% above expected based on situational data from FourthAndShort, the 30th-highest rate.
To maintain that pass-heavy approach, the Wildcats must find a way to protect quarterback Kenny Minchey against the Vols' dangerous pass rush.
Though Minchey is having a breakout season in his first year in Lexington, the redshirt-junior has been inconsistent against pressure, as demonstrated by these metrics from Sports Info Solutions:
Comp % Rnk Yds/Att Rnk +EPA% Rnk Clean Pocket 79% 4th 7.8 67th 59% 18th Versus Pressure 45% 68th 5.2 78th 27% 66th
Minchey has also been sacked on 22% of his dropbacks versus pressure, ranked 102nd.
Protecting Minchey won't be an easy task, as evidenced by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Kentucky: ranked 74th in pressure rate allowed
- Tennessee: ranked 3rd in pressure rate generated
One of Minchey's issues appears to be getting rid of the ball quickly enough to keep the offense on schedule and avoid pressure.
Last year at Oregon, Stein's quarterbacks released the ball in under 2.5 seconds at the nation's 17th-highest rate.
This year, Kentucky ranks 52nd at just 49%, according to Pro Football Focus.
When Minchey holds the ball too long, the offense tends to go off the rails.
While most teams generate big plays on extended dropbacks, Minchey is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt on quick dropbacks and just 6.9 yards per attempt when holding the ball for at least 2.5 seconds.
Kentucky is one of just 22 teams averaging more yards per attempt on quick dropbacks than extended dropbacks.
Getting the ball out quickly will be especially important against Tennessee, which leads the nation with a 63% pressure rate generated against extended dropbacks.
But even on quick dropbacks, expect the Vols to put pressure on Minchey.
The Vols have generated an impressive 22% pressure rate against quick dropbacks (ranked 10th), while Kentucky has allowed a 16% pressure rate on those plays (ranked 96th).
If protecting Minchey becomes a problem, the Wildcats might be able to pivot to a more run-centric offense against a vulnerable Vols run defense.
Check out Sports Info Solutions' opponent-adjusted numbers on the matchup in the run game:
- Kentucky: ranked 1st in yards before contact
- Tennessee: ranked 90th in yards before contact allowed
- Kentucky: ranked 114th in yards after contact
- Tennessee: ranked 37th in yards after contact allowed
Although Tennessee does a nice job preventing yards after contact, their ability to bring down the ball carrier is often too little, too late.
Tennessee has allowed at least 3 yards before contact to running backs on 32% of their carries, ranked 118th.
And for that reason, the Vols rank 117th in explosive rush rate allowed, giving up 10 or more yards on 15% of attempts.
If you're surprised by these numbers given the hype surrounding Tennessee's defense, keep in mind the Vols' two best performances came against Alabama and Texas, two teams that do not run the ball well.
The key to stopping Kentucky this year has been forcing them into third-and-long situations.
The Wildcats have just four third-down conversions of seven or more yards, a 12% conversion rate which ranks 127th.
Given the rate at which Tennessee gives up yards before contact, however, the Vols are unlikely to force Kentucky into many of those situations, which should keep pressure off Minchey and allow for a run-heavy game plan.
When Tennessee is on Offense
Tennessee has used two freshmen at quarterback, first Faizon Brandon and now George MacIntyre, and the result has been the worst passing attack of the Josh Heupel era.
So for Tennessee to knock off the Wildcats, it will need to run the ball despite the fact that Kentucky knows exactly what's coming.
Heupel's aggressive downfield passing attack has morphed into a power-run offense this season, with DeSean Bishop seeing a heavy workload.
Check out some of these numbers from Sports Info Solutions on Tennessee's run game:
- 50% of attempts out of 12 personnel
- 57% of attempts into a stacked box
- 64% of attempts between the tackles
These trends have made the Vols predictable, but Kentucky's inconsistent run defense might still be beatable.
Check out the Wildcats' defense in those same areas:
- 4.4 yards per attempt allowed versus 12 personnel, ranked 68th
- 4.3 yards per attempt allowed with stacked box, ranked 66th
- 3.5 yards per attempt allowed between the tackles, ranked 15th
Just like the Vols defense, Kentucky also gives up far too many easy yards on the ground.
Opposing running backs have gained at least 3 yards before contact on 36% of attempts against the Wildcats, ranked 132nd.
However, unlike Tennessee, Kentucky has found ways to limit the damage and prevent big plays from the run game.
Opponents are only gaining 10 or more yards on 9.0% of attempts against Kentucky, ranked 24th.
So Bishop might not break off any long runs, but it's unlikely the Wildcats contain him enough to force Tennessee into many tough down-and-distance situations.
Based on these numbers, Heupel probably won't need much from his young quarterbacks in this matchup, but if he does, the Vols would be in trouble.
For starters, Tennessee has struggled to protect its quarterbacks this year and will likely be at a disadvantage in the pass protection battle based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Tennessee: ranked 78th in pressure rate allowed
- Kentucky: ranked 53rd in pressure rate generated
Traditionally, Heupel likes his quarterbacks to take shots downfield, but MacIntyre and Brandon have been unable to get anything going in the deep passing game.
Prior to getting benched, Brandon was just 6 for 20 on throws 10 or more yards downfield, but avoided throwing any interceptions on those passes.
MacIntyre is completing 39% of his throws at that depth, an improvement, but he's also been picked off three times.
Since the Vols can't attack downfield anymore, Heupel has turned to underneath routes as the staple of his passing attack this year.
55% of Tennessee's passes have been 5 or fewer yards downfield, the 14th-highest rate.
It's been an effective strategy, as the Vols are averaging 5.8 yards per attempt on those throws, ranked 36th.
Kentucky's defense ranks 70th by the same metric.
From a big-picture standpoint, another reason to trust Tennessee's offense is its success in the red zone.
The Vols have scored a touchdown on 70% of their trips to the red zone, ranked 27th.
That trend bodes well against a Kentucky defense which ranks 100th, with a 67% red-zone touchdown rate allowed.
Final Thoughts on Tennessee vs. Kentucky Best Bets
With both teams expected to find success on the ground and serious questions about each passing attack, this matchup feels like more of a toss-up than the spread indicates, so let's play Kentucky against the spread.
This should be a back-and-forth game, and the winner will likely be the team that does the best job protecting the football.
Since turnovers could be the difference, it probably makes sense to bet against Tennessee, which has turned it over more than twice as often as Kentucky due to the issues at quarterback.