Should You Bet the Over/Under Joe Burrow Prop Bet for Passing Yards in 2021?

It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group. 

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Why You Should Bet the OVER on Joe Burrow’s Passing Yards Prop Bet

  • The Cincinnati Bengals have a Pass-heavy offense
  • The Bengals have a much-improved receiving corps
  • The Bengals will likely be playing from behind in most games, meaning Burrow will be throwing the ball more 

Prior to his injury, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow was averaging 268.8 yards per game. If Burrow matches that rate and plays a full 17 games, he’d be on pace for 4,569 yards, easily hitting the over at three of the major legal online sportsbooks:

  • 4200.5 passing yards at BetMGM
  • 4249.5 passing yards at FanDuel
  • 4250.5 passing yards at DraftKings

Based on the Bengals’ early-game play calling, it appears the coaching staff wants a pass-heavy offense. Through Week 10 (with Burrow at quarterback), no one threw the ball at a higher rate in the first quarter than Cincinnati (64%). 

Replacing A.J. Green with rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase may also improve Burrow’s efficiency. Burrow completed just 45.3% of his throws to Green last season, compared to 73.5% when targeting Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins

This upgrade should specifically help in the downfield passing game. According to Sports Info Solutions, Green led the Bengals in targets 15 or more yards downfield, but caught an NFL-worst 16.2 percent of those 一 and just 60 percent of his on-target throws, also worst in the league.

With the Bengals favored in just two games entering the season, Burrow should also be forced to throw at a high rate late in games, potentially padding his stats in garbage time.