The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Las Vegas Raiders could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Las Vegas Raiders 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-Geno Smith was supposed to provide the Pete Carroll-led Raiders with stability at quarterback last year. Instead, he was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Among 33 qualified signal callers, Smith was 31st in EPA per play and 30th in success rate. The Raiders took a two-pronged approach to replace him, elevating their floor and ceiling by signing Kirk Cousins and spending the first pick in the NFL Draft on Fernando Mendoza. Even if Cousins repeats last year’s level of play, he’d be an upgrade over 2025 Smith, and Mendoza gives them even more upside at the position.
-The offensive line play for the Raiders was horrendous in 2025. Las Vegas ranked 28th in pressure rate allowed and didn’t pave the way for a productive rushing attack, ranking 32nd in yards per carry (3.6). They took substantial measures to improve the offensive line, signing Tyler Linderbaum to a record-setting contract for a center, inking guard Spencer Burford to a deal, and drafting interior offensive lineman Trey Zuhn in the third round. Additionally, the offensive line will get Kolton Miller back at left tackle after he was lost to an ankle injury in Week 4 last season.
-The passing game will also get a lift from a healthier Brock Bowers. The team’s top pass-catching weapon suffered a PCL injury and a bone bruise in his knee in Week 1 and played through the injury for three weeks before shutting it down until Week 9. Bowers played eight more games after his return before sitting out the season’s final two games.
Reasons for the Under
-Las Vegas has a long climb to a competent offense. They were 30th in yards per play (4.4), 30th in success rate, 31st in EPA per play, 31st in points per drive (1.32), and 32nd in points per game (14.2). Klint Kubiak has his work cut out for him, even with the expected improvements at quarterback and along the offensive line.
-Not much went right for the 3-14 Raiders last year. However, penalties worked out in their favor. They were eighth in penalty margin, 10th in offensive penalty EPA, 10th in defensive penalty EPA, and their above-average ranks in penalty EPA on both sides of the ball resulted in a sixth-place net penalty EPA ranking.
-The Raiders made some splashes on Kwity Paye, Quay Walker, and Nakobe Dean in free agency, traded for nickel back Taron Johnson, and spent two picks on Day 2 and four more picks on Day 3 of the NFL Draft on the defense, too. Nevertheless, Las Vegas was 24th in points allowed per drive (2.27), 23rd in points allowed per game (23.6), 26th in interception rate, and 25th in pressure rate last season.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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