Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Bears Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Bears win this season?
The Bears are predicted to win 6.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Bears Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
The Bears have the fourth-easiest schedule of opponents, the fourth-largest improvement after facing the ninth most difficult schedule last year.
The most notable improvement is against opposing offenses, as the Bears faced the most efficient passing offenses in 2021 and are projected to face the 14th-most difficult, the seventh-largest improvement from 2021.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
Justin Fields is mobile and can extend plays with his legs as mobile quarterbacks tend to be able to overcome a lack of talent with wide receivers more so than pocket passing quarterbacks. The rushing game also benefits from the mobility of Fields, as the Bears averaged 4.6 yards per rush with Fields vs. 3.65 yards per rush without Fields.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
Even without significant upgrades to the offense, the Bears can improve upon last year’s worst third down offense and third-worst red zone offense with more efficient play calling.
Under Matt Nagy, the Bears have finished last in third down conversions for two consecutive seasons and in 2021 averaged 7.5 yards to go on third down the second-highest in the league. The offense is also due for regression on third downs as finished with fifth-worst -2.6% conversion over expectation.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Bears Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The front seven lost significant players in Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, and Eddie Goldman while there is potential that Robert Quinn is moved at some point. Already a significant candidate for sack regression as the 2021 units had the league’s highest conversion rate of pressures to sacks, the depleted unit faces the league’s toughest schedule in terms of offensive pass protection efficiency.
Lacking depth on the defensive line, it is hard to imagine the Bears improve significantly after finishing near the bottom of pressure rate.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Lacking the ability to create pressure and one of the weakest secondaries in the league, the Bears’ defense struggled against wide receivers, allowing a league-high 9.1 yards per reception and third-worst 55% success rate.
The Bears allowed the seventh-highest total EPA on dropbacks with a throw as the defensive success was reliant on sacks.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The new general manager did not prioritize upgrading one of the league’s worst offensive lines. The Bears’ offense allowed a league-high 58 sacks and Fields was sacked on 11.8% of his dropbacks the league’s highest rate. The offense will struggle if Fields can’t get rid of the ball faster in 2022.
Chicago Bears Strength of Schedule:
The Bears are ranked #4 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them one of the easiest schedules for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.