Coach’s Picks: Best Bets Against The Spread, Thanksgiving

Each week throughout the 2023 NFL Season, coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach’s perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread.

Happy Thanksgiving and the holiday always brings us three great NFL games.

I believe there are betting opportunities in these games. I found two winners in the Monday Night Football game last week, and I think I have done the same on Thanksgiving.

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Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Spread Prediction:

Look for the Detroit Lions to cover the spread as 8-point home favorites against the Green Bay Packers and the Lions to score Over 27.5 points.

» Bet the Lions -8 and Lions Over 27.5 points now

Why I like the Lions to cover the spread vs. the Packers in Week 12:

The Detroit Lions are in a group of what I think are one of the most fun teams to watch in the league. I have never been a Lions fan, but I like Jared Goff in what I think is the perfect offense.

Jahymr Gibbs and David Montgomery have great offsetting styles in the run game. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, sprinkled in with a speedster in Jameson Williams, are so explosive in the pass game, especially with that play action factor. Their OC, Ben Johnson, is creative in play calling but creative with his blocking schemes that help mix the front sevens in almost every team they face.

I like the fact that Goff threw three interceptions last week. I bet he sits down and figures out the why and doesn’t make those mistakes again. I also love that the Packers beat the Chargers last week. I think that kept this line under 10 points.

The Lions are No. 4 in overall team DVOA, and the Packers are No. 21. It is a balanced score that makes up this number as they are No. 5 on offense and No. 10 on defense. Green Bay is No. 19 on offense and, here is the part that is rough for them, is No. 24 on defense.

I know it’s a divisional game, but the Detroit offense can simply out-match the Packer defense. If the Chargers were not so inept in the run game with a very negative EPA, they would have beaten the Packers by double digits in my humble opinion.

Well, the Lions are one of the best run teams in the NFL and will expose that defense. That will set up play action that Detroit and Goff thrive on.

Williams is a guy I hope they really look to put more out on the field. He had a huge TD in that comeback over the Bears last week. He probably is their fastest guy, and if he can catch a few more deep passes, that will help get the defense they face in more two-high looks, which will cause that running game to feast.

The Packers on offense do not pass the eye test or the statistical one. Since Week 2, they have scored over 20 points exactly one time. That was last week at home versus the Chargers, a team that is at the bottom of the league in pass defense (No. 29), run defense (No. 26), and giving up explosive plays (No. 3).

And you know they are going to have to score more than 20 points to beat the Lions in Detroit.

Aaron Jones is still out and he is their best player on offense. They have struggled to run the ball, and that is the strength of this Lions defense.

To make matters worse, Jordan Love is dead last in the league this year in passes completed over expected. I can almost promise they are going to be behind at the end of this game, and he is going to be against the odds for the win or even the backdoor cover.

The Lions won the first game against the Packers 34-20, and it could have been worse. The Lions almost double them up in offensive yards, 401-230, and I think this game might be worse.

Well, in meaningful times. Maybe Love gets some late meaningless yards to make it look okay.

I am playing the Lions team total over 27.5, and I am on the Lions -8.

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