In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week.
Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
Consider the over on Nick Chubb’s receiving yards prop
The Cleveland Browns are underdogs at Carolina, making this a great opportunity to take the over on Nick Chubb’s receiving yards.
Nick Chubb receiving yards prop, current line:
Chubb played in seven Browns losses last season and reached at least eight receiving yards in five of them. He also topped eight yards in one of the two games he played in which the Browns won by a field goal or less.
Carolina is favored by 2.5 points in this matchup. So if the game script plays out as expected, Chubb should be involved in the Cleveland passing game.
The Panthers’ pass rush should also elevate our expectations for Chubb’s role in the passing game.
Browns running backs earned a 28% target share when the quarterback was under pressure last season.
Carolina’s defense generated a 32% pressure rate last year, ranked 10th in the league, and returns leading pass-rusher Brian Burns.
The Browns’ offensive line may also be more vulnerable than usual this week. Cleveland will be without starting center Nick Harris (likely done for the year) and may be without right tackle Jack Conklin as well.
With quarterback Jacoby Brissett likely facing consistent pressure and the Browns potentially playing from behind, this is a strong opportunity to play the over on Chub’’s receiving yards.
Consider the over on Jordyn Brooks tackles + assists
Defensive player props usually aren’t available until late in the week, but take the over on Jordyn Brooks’s total tackles if it’s listed at 8.5 or lower.
Jordyn Brooks tackles + assists prop, current line:
Defensive roles change from year to year, so we can sometimes gain an edge early in the season by anticipating a new role for a certain player.
Seattle Seahawks linebacker Jordyn Brooks was a tackle machine last year (184 total), and is likely to build on that number as he takes over the green-dot role in Seattle’s defense from Bobby Wagner.
Brooks played less than 90% of the team’s snaps in nine of 17 games a season ago. In the green-dot role, Wagner never came over the field (until a Week 17 injury).
When Brooks played at least 90% of Seattle’s snaps, he tallied nine or more tackles in every game.
Brooks’s tackles prop was available at 7.5 or 8.5 for most of the 2021 season and, since that’s already an extremely high number for this prop, there’s a good chance it stays in that range for Week 1. If it does, take the over.
Consider the under on Jonathan Taylor’s rushing attempts
In what should be an easy win over the Houston Texans, take the under on Jonathan Taylor’s rushing attempts. Indy will likely take advantage of this opportunity to limit his workload early in the season.
Jonathan Taylor’s rushing attempts, current line:
Jonathan Taylor averaged 19.5 carries per game last season, but his workload was heavily backloaded. Taylor did not reach 20 carries in a game until Week 10.
Early in the season, Marlon Mack was still seeing some action, slightly cutting into Taylor’s workload. Mack played his final game in Week 8, at which point the Colts essentially operated without a backup running back (at least on run plays 一 Nyheim Hines saw action in the passing game).
Late in the year, the Colts also appeared to lose faith in Carson Wentz and leaned heavily on Taylor to carry the load.
Wentz averaged 33 attempts per game through Week 9, but just 27 per game over the final eight games. Even in the Colts’ final three losses, Wentz attempted just 20, 16, and 15 passes.
With Matt Ryan now at quarterback, there’s no reason for Indy to avoid the passing game as they did late in the 2021 season.
The Colts are also favored by seven in this matchup against the Houston Texans, which potentially paves the way for Hines and even Deon Jackson to get some carries late in this game.