Week 8 NFL Best Bets: Against the Spread & Game Total Picks

NFL Best Bets: Week 8 Picks

• Bills Over 28.5 Points
• Chiefs Under 20.5 Points

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NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Bills Over 28.5 Points

The Bills have been an offensive wagon this season.

According to Sumer Sports, Buffalo is first in expected points added (EPA) per play, second in EPA per pass, first in EPA per rush, and fourth in success rate.

Per TruMedia, the Bills are also first in points per game (32.8), first in points per drive (3.13), and first in yards per play (6.5).

Buffalo has cleared 28.5 points in four of six games this season.

Oddly, the two games they went under 28.5 points were at home, but that doesn't align with their home dominance in recent seasons.

In 33 home games since 2023, the Bills have averaged 30.8 points per game.

Buffalo has also excelled in games projected to shoot out.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Bills have averaged 32.5 points per game and allowed 28.0 points per game in 14 games with at least a 50-point game total.

The Ravens have another offense that's piled up points in projected shootouts.

Buffalo's 32.5 points per game in 14 games with a 50-point total since 2023 ranks third, but the Ravens aren't far behind, ranking eighth with 29.2 points per game and 25.8 points allowed per game.

Buffalo's defense is also ill-equipped to slow down any quality offense.

The Bills rank 30th in defensive points allowed per game (28.5), 32nd in points allowed per drive (2.76), tied for 31st in EPA allowed per play, 32nd in defensive success rate, and tied for 22nd in yards allowed per play (5.6).

The Ravens will likely push the Bills.

The makings are there for a shootout.

Finally, the Bills are coming off their bye.

Joe Brady is the team's head coach now, but he was the interim offensive coordinator in 2023 and the official OC in 2024 and 2025.

Off the bye, the Bills scored 20 points in Kansas City in 2023, 35 at home against the 49ers in 2024, and 40 points in Carolina in 2025.

The Bills should clear 28.5 points this week.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Chiefs Under 20.5 Points

The Chiefs drilled the Broncos in Week 1, winning 31-10.

Kenneth Walker was the game's star, producing 191 scrimmage yards (173 rushing and 18 receiving) and 2 touchdowns.

Patrick Mahomes wasn't special in the opener.

Instead, he completed 15 of 27 passes (55.6%) at a 4.46-yard average depth of target (aDOT) for 184 yards, 6.81 yards per pass attempt, 5.76 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), 2 passing touchdowns, and 1 interception.

Mahomes took 2 sacks, but he gave the Broncos trouble with his legs, scrambling 4 times for 27 yards and a touchdown.

Kansas City imposed its will on the ground, and the game script buried the Broncos.

Since Week 2, the Broncos rank fourth in defensive points allowed per game (18.3), tied for third in points allowed per drive (1.38), and seventh in yards allowed per play (4.86).

It's also a meaningful consideration that the rematch is in Denver.

Denver's defense has allowed only 16.9 points per game, 1.61 points per drive, and 4.65 yards per play in 22 home games since 2024.

According to StatHead, the Broncos have held 14 of 22 opponents in Denver under 20.5 points during that timeframe.

If the Broncos sell out to stop the run in the rematch, the key to holding the Chiefs under 20.5 points will be the trench matchup.

The Chiefs rank tied for 15th in pressured dropback rate.

Meanwhile, the Broncos rank third in pressure rate.

Among 29 quarterbacks with at least 50 pressured dropbacks, Mahomes ranks first in yards per pass attempt (10.05) and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.44), but he ranks 13th in quarterback rating (64.3) because he's thrown 3 interceptions under pressure and 0 touchdown passes.

Finally, Denver's offense can have a hand in keeping the Chiefs under 20.5 points.

Since Sean Payton took over play-calling duties in Week 5, the Broncos rank 27th in pass rate over expected (-3.5% PROE) and 23rd in neutral pace.

If the Broncos can sustain drives, they can chew up the clock and shorten the game.

The Seahawks' talented defense held the Chiefs to only 3 points in Seattle last week, and the Broncos have ample talent to bottle up Kansas City's offense in a tricky environment for visitors in Denver.