In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week.
Player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day. This early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted.
Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Consider the over on DeAndre Hopkins’ longest reception prop
This has been our favorite prop since Will Levis took over, so let’s stick with the over on DeAndre Hopkins’ longest reception.
DeAndre Hopkins’ longest reception prop, current line:
Last week against the Dolphins, DeAndre Hopkins had three receptions longer than the line on this prop (20.5 yards) and the over is now 5-2 since Levis took over as the Tennessee Titans quarterback.
According to TruMedia, Levis leads the NFL with 31% of his attempts at 15 or more yards downfield. The next highest rate is 24% by C.J. Stroud.
Hopkins leads the NFL in targets at 15 or more yards downfield (28) since Levis took the job in Tennessee.
Despite these trends, the line on this prop continues to be available at 20.5 or 21.5 each week, and we’ll continue to smash the over, even if it rises by a few yards this week.
Consider the over on D.J. Moore’s receptions prop
The Cleveland Browns' unique defense often gives us an edge, so this week let’s take the over on D.J. Moore’s receptions.
D.J. Moore’s receptions prop, current line:
The Browns use man coverage at a 43% rate, the league’s highest mark and well above the NFL average of 24%, per TruMedia. This knowledge gives us an edge in the betting market, as targets are typically distributed differently against man and zone coverage.
In the Chicago Bears offense, D.J. Moore is the beneficiary of man coverage. Check out his target share breakdown when Justin Fields is at quarterback, via TruMedia:
- versus zone: 24.5%
- versus man: 38.2%
Moore has hit the over on his receptions prop in four consecutive weeks and has seen double-digit targets in each of his last two games.
Consider the over on Brandon Aiyuk’s longest reception prop
In a friendly defensive matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, take the over on Brandon Aiyuk’s longest reception.
Brandon Aiyuk’s longest reception prop, current line:
We have been playing this prop against the Cardinals defense for most of the season with excellent results. In this matchup, Brandon Aiyuk is the obvious beneficiary of Arizona’s inept secondary.
According to TruMedia, the Cardinals have allowed a 61% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield, the league’s worst rate and far above the NFL average of 44%.
Aiyuk has seen 43% of the 49ers targets at 15 or more yards downfield, with an average of 2.8 per game, according to TruMedia.
Aiyuk’s longest reception has hit at least 25 yards in seven of 12 games, including in the last meeting with Arizona when he hauled in a 42-yard reception.
Consider the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush prop
This prop might be matchup-proof, so take the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush against the Denver Broncos.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush prop, current line:
Over his last nine games, Jahmyr Gibbs has ripped off a run of at least 20 yards seven times, yet the line on this prop consistently remains far below that number (it was available at 12.5 last week).
The line probably moves up this week, but we should still take it at almost any number given his track record.
Gibbs might be matchup-proof, but he also draws a favorable opponent in the Broncos, who have allowed at least 15 yards on 8.1% of carries by running backs, the league’s second-highest rate per TruMedia.
Denver consistently gets dominated in the trenches, and opposing running backs have gained at least three yards before contact on 31% of attempts, the NFL’s highest rate.
When Gibbs is provided at least three untouched yards, he gains 15 or more yards on 24% of those carries, according to TruMedia.
Consider the over on De'Von Achane’s longest rush prop
It’s usually safe to bet on some explosive plays from the Miami Dolphins, so take the over on De'Von Achane’s longest rush.
De'Von Achane’s longest rush prop, current line:
The Dolphins draw a tough defensive matchup against the New York Jets, but it may not have an impact on this particular prop.
The Jets tend to allow untouched yards at a high rate 一 25% of carries start with at least three yards before contact, ranked 25th, per TruMedia 一 and that bodes well for Devon Achane.
Achane gains at least 15 yards on a league-best 14.3% of his carries, and that rate jumps to 25% when provided at least three untouched yards.