Best Over/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 16

In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week.

Player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day. This early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.

This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted.

Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.

Consider the over on Antonio Gibson’s receptions prop

In a favorable matchup against the New York Jets, take the over on Antonio Gibson’s receptions.

Antonio Gibson’s receptions prop, current line:

In four of his last six games, Antonio Gibson has reached at least five receptions. Based on that trend and the Jets’ defensive scheme, the over looks like another strong bet this week. 

Running backs are targeted at a 25.6% rate against the Jets, the league’s highest mark, per TruMedia. 

One of the reasons for the high target share for running backs is New York’s low blitz rate (16.6%, ranked 31st), which typically creates more opportunities for running backs in the passing game.  

Consider the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush prop

This prop has been a consistent winner for us, so take the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush against the Minnesota Vikings.

Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush prop, current line:

Jahmyr Gibbs has broken off a run of at least 20 yards in eight of his last 10 games, yet this prop has consistently been available far below that number. 

The Vikings have a stingy run defense and have allowed 15 or more yards on the ground at the league’s lowest rate (1.1%), per TruMedia. 

However, given Gibbs’ consistent production, we should assume this is a matchup-proof prop. Just two weeks ago, Gibbs broke off a 36-yard run against the Bears, who rank fourth by that same metric. 

Consider the over on De’Von Achane’s receiving yards prop

This prop is on a three-game win streak, so take the over on De’Von Achane’s receiving yards.

Devon Achane’s receiving yards prop, current line:

In recent weeks, De’Von Achane has taken on a larger role in the Miami Dolphins passing game. Over half of Achane’s receptions on the year have come in the last three games (11 of 21). 

Achane has reached at least 24 receiving yards in each of the last three games and should continue to see strong volume in what could be a high-scoring game against the Dallas Cowboys. 

The total for the Dolphins-Cowboys game is set to 51.5, the only game on the slate above 50 points. 

Consider the over on Devin Singletary’s longest rush prop

In a sneaky good matchup, take the over on Devin Singletary’s longest rush.

Devin Singletary’s longest rush prop, current line:

The Cleveland Browns defense is arguably the league’s most dominant unit, but it also gives up big plays on the ground at a shocking rate. 

Cleveland is allowing 15 or more yards on 8.6% of carries by running backs, the league’s highest rate, per TruMedia. 

Due to the Browns’ reputation, we’re likely to get a favorable number on this prop 一 it was available at 12.5 last week against the Titans 一 despite Devin Singletary’s longest rush reaching at least 14 yards in six consecutive games. 

Singletary saw 26 carries last week while no other Texans running back had more than one, so it’s clear who has control of the backfield right now. 

Consider the under on James Conner’s rushing yards prop

Against an underrated Chicago Bears defense, take the under on James Conner’s rushing yards.

James Connor’s rushing yards prop, current line:

The Bears’ stingy run defense has contributed to their late-season surge, and it ranks among the best units in the league. 

Take a look at a few key numbers on Chicago’s defense against running back carries, via TruMedia:

  • 3.6 yards per attempt, ranked fourth
  • 0.98 yards before contact per attempt, ranked fifth
  • 49% contact rate at or behind the line of scrimmage, ranked fifth

The Bears are also favored by 4.5 points in this matchup, which could reduce James Conner’s opportunities if Chicago can play with a lead throughout the contest. 

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