In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
Consider the over on Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop
Despite a dropoff in production in recent weeks this matchup with the New England Patriots looks like a good opportunity to bet the over on Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards.
Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop, current line:
- Take the over at 44.5 or lower
This recommendation is based on the Patriots’ low usage of two-high safety coverages 一 a trend we’ve been using to our advantage in recent weeks.
New England uses two-high coverage on just 18% of opponent dropbacks, the lowest rate in the NFL and far below the league average of 39%.
Over the past two weeks, we’ve used New England’s unique defensive approach to bet (and win) the under on Cole Kmet and David Njoku’s receptions. But this week it looks like Wilson is set to benefit more than any individual pass-catcher will be hurt by the Patriots’ coverage scheme.
When facing two-high coverages, Wilson sees a 15.7% target share, second on the team behind Tyler Conklin (16.9%), per TruMedia/PFF. Since two-high coverages leave the middle of the field open, it’s common for tight ends to see more usage.
When facing single-high coverages, however, Wilson’s target share jumps to a team-high 23.4%, followed by Corey Davis at 16.2% and Conklin at 15.5%.
Assuming New England maintains its high rate of single-high coverages, Wilson should see an increased workload on Sunday.
Consider the over on Kyler Murray’s completions prop
Kyler Murray’s completions prop, current line:
- Take the over at 26.5 or lower
The Vikings have allowed more completions than their opponents average versus other teams in six of seven games this season. Only the Saints fell short, though that was likely influenced by a quarterback change 一 it was Andy Dalton’s first start.
Murray is averaging 26.3 completions per game, so it would stand to reason we should expect 27 or more in this game.
The reason for the increased completions against the Vikings is their use of the combination of zone coverage without a blitz. No team uses that combination more than Minnesota at 73% 一 the league average is 55.6%, per TruMedia.
It’s also worth noting Minnesota’s use of this defensive approach has not dipped below 59% in any game 一 so there’s little risk of an altered approach against Arizona throwing this trend off.
The combination of zone coverage with no blitz makes big plays down the field less likely, but it does increase the availability of short, easy throws.
Take a look at Murray’s completion rate based on different defenses:
- vs zone/no blitz: 72.5%
- vs all other schemes: 55.3%
Expect Arizona’s short passing game to have success in this matchup, and take the over on Murray’s completions prop.
Consider the under on Dak Prescott’s passing yards
The Dallas Cowboys offense has a surprisingly tough matchup against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, so take the under on Dak Prescott’s passing yards.
Dak Prescott’s passing yards, current line:
- Take the under at 255.5 or higher
Perhaps because the Bears are not highly regarded, passing yardage props against them continue to be placed too high. However, this is a solid pass defense 一 ranked 12th by Football Outsiders’ Pass DVOA metric.
As a result, the under on passing yards against the Bears has been a winner in five of seven games.
Chicago’s ability to play slow and limit possessions also plays a role in its ability to suppress yardage. The Bears’ offense ranks 29th in plays per game (57.9), while their opponents rank 23rd (60.1)
With just 207 yards last week against a weak Lions defense, Prescott fell well short of the over on his yardage prop in his return from injury.
The oddsmakers have a habit of overestimating Dallas’s passing attack, as the under has been a winner in 12 of Prescott’s 18 starts dating back to last season.
Consider the over on Nick Chubb’s longest rush prop
This prop keeps winning, so let’s keep playing 一 take the over on Nick Chubb’s longest rush.
Nick Chubb’s longest rush prop, current line:
- Take the over at 19.5 or lower
Chubb has broken off a run of at least 20 yards in 10 of his last 11 games, but the prop continues to be available at 19.5 or lower.
There’s no reason to believe the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense has the ability to break this trend on Monday night.
Cincinnati has allowed three or more yards before contact to running backs on 26% of carries, ranked 26th per TruMedia.
That early untouched yardage is critical to producing long runs 一 79% of plays gaining 20 or more yards this season have started with at least three yards before contact.
The over on Chubb’s longest rush pairs a strong trend with a favorable matchup, making it an easy bet to like for Monday Night Football.