Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Falcons Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Falcons win this season?
The Falcons are predicted to win 4.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Falcons Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Efficient teams in the NFL build around good passing offenses and defenses.
The Falcons have ascending young key players on both sides of the ball. Cornerback A.J. Terrell in his second season finished third in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap.
Tight end Kyle Pitts had 1,000 yards in his rookie season and had the highest yards per route run against man coverage of all tight ends. Rookie receiver Drake London is another huge target that averaged nearly 100 yards per game in his college career and is only 20 years old.
If the Falcons are going to have success, it starts with these young stars.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
Field goal luck is usually random, unless a kicker is truly elite. The Falcons’ kicker, Younghoe Koo, has proven to be an advantage on special teams.
In his three years as a Falcon, Koo has made 92.7% of his field goal attempts including 13/14 from over 50 yards.
In the past two years, Koo has made 4.63 and 2.66 field goals over expectation. The Falcons have a kicking advantage which can help the team win close games.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Falcons Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
All seven of the Falcons’ wins in 2021 were by a touchdown or less and the Falcons finished the season with a -146-point differential.
Facing the 10th-most difficult schedule, including the league’s most difficult schedule of opposing defenses the Falcons are not likely to repeat a 7-2 record in one-score games.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The Falcons are due for regression in multiple categories in 2022 and the rebuilding team could struggle.
Last year, the Falcons had the third-fewest adjusted games lost and are due for worse injury luck.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The offensive line is a huge concern for the 2022 Falcons, especially with the loss of veteran quarterback Matt Ryan.
The starting offensive line was fortunate to avoid serious injuries and played 82% of snaps yet was one of the worst units in the league.
The offensive line finished with the seventh-worst Pass Block Win Rate and fourth-worst Run Block Win Rate and allowed the highest-pressure rate.
Without any significant upgrades this offseason, it’s hard to imagine improvement will occur.
Atlanta Falcons Strength of Schedule:
The Falcons are ranked #23 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them one of the 10 toughest schedules for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.