Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Lions Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Lions win this season?
The Lions are predicted to win 6.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Lions Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Dan Campbell and positive work culture. Not measurable in any statistic, however, the energy and passion that Campbell brings to the Lions are important to the rebuilding franchise.
The 2021 team lacked talent to begin with and experienced the third-highest adjusted games lost, yet showed up and played with maximum effort every week.
After starting 0-8 the Lions defeated the Packers, Vikings, and Cardinals, tied the Steelers, and lost three games by less than a touchdown.
Campbell was the fourth-most aggressive coach in Football Outsiders’ Aggressiveness Index and won the final game losing a chance at the No. 1 draft pick.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
The Lions are benefactors of both an improved strength of schedule and fortunate net rest.
After facing the fifth-hardest schedule of opponents last year, the Lions have the fifth-easiest in 2022, the third-highest improvement. Also aiding the Lions is not facing a single opponent that has a rest advantage.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
The Lions finished 1-4 in games decided by a field goal or less.
The Lions’ defense allowed a 70% red zone touchdown rate while the offense scored a touchdown on 47% of red zone possessions. Improvement in red zone efficiency will help the Lions in tight games.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Lions Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The 2021 Lions gave up the second-highest points in the league and were not efficient in stopping the run or pass.
The Lions gave up a fourth-highest 5.91 yards per play allowing the third-highest explosive passing rate.
They were bottom-seven or worse in yards per attempt to all running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.
Despite adding Aidan Hutchinson, the defense needs improvement before the Lions can win on a weekly basis.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The Lions did not improve the interior of the defensive line, which remains a liability for the defense.
The returning members of the interior were unable to create pressure as the Lions had the second-lowest Pass Rush Win Rate and struggled to stop the run with a bottom-10 Run Stop Win Rate.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
Jared Goff has limitations to his game as evidenced by the 6.3 air yards per pass attempt.
Goff attempted 25.2% of passes beyond 10 yards, the lowest rate in the league.
The former first-round quarterback is not going to be an elite difference maker and the team will need to continue to game plan around him.
Detroit Lions Strength of Schedule:
The Lions are ranked #5 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them one of the easiest schedules for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.