2026 NFL Quarterback Overs: Best Prop Bets
- Josh Allen – Over 3599.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Josh Allen – Over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
- Jordan Love – Over 3549.5 Passing Yards (+100)
2026 NFL Quarterback Longshot Prop Bets
- Josh Allen – 35 + Passing Touchdowns (+800)
- Josh Allen – 40 + Passing Touchdowns (+2000)
- Jordan Love – 4000+ Passing Yards (+230)
Fantasy football projections, like those done by Rich Hribar, can be a guide to help identify overvalued or undervalued players in the current betting markets.
Using our projections, I will identify a couple of players at each position who we are higher on and lower on than the current market.
We will also look at some longshot bets for teams that could alter their strategy significantly from previous seasons.
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Josh Allen 2026 Over/Under Predictions
The Buffalo offense played at the league's slowest pace and ran the ball at the second-highest rate last season, which seems very counterintuitive for a team with Josh Allen at quarterback.
Since the start of 2022, Allen is second in EPA per play and has finished among the top four quarterbacks in EPA per play in every single year.
Despite an effective rushing attack, it would be logical to find a way to lean on the most consistent quarterback over the past four seasons.
Speculation around the Bills is that new head coach Joe Brady will have a similar run-first offense.
However, the run rate may have been dictated by Brady’s boss.
His predecessor, Ken Dorsey, was fired after Allen opened the season with 10 interceptions in the opening 10 games of the 2023 season.
Up until that point, the Bills had passed 3.3% above expectation.
Since Brady took over, the Bills have consistently been below expectations.
In his one full season in Carolina, with Teddy Bridgewater and PJ Walker at quarterback, Brady's offense finished the season with a 2.7% pass rate above expectation.
It is in the range of outcomes that the Bills have a large year-over-year uptick in passing rate under Brady.
D.J. Moore entered the league at 21 years old, posted four 1,000-yard seasons in his first six years, is only 29, and represents a significant upgrade over any of the wide receivers Allen had on the field last year.
An already thin wide receiver room battled injuries last year.
Josh Palmer missed five games with an ankle injury, Khalil Shakir played through a nagging knee injury, and Dalton Kincaid missed five games and had his snaps limited due to an ongoing knee issue.
Improved personnel and receiver health could play a part in the Bills playing more aggressively this season.
According to Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview, the Bills faced the second-easiest schedule of opposing passing offenses last season.
They are projected to face the 16th-ranked schedule of opposing passing offenses this season.
That projection is based on last season’s metrics, so they could potentially face a more difficult schedule given that they get the Chargers, Vikings, Ravens, Raiders and Texans.
All of those teams could improve upon last season's offensive ranking.
In the last two seasons, when Bills opponents scored 30 or more points, Allen averaged 34 passes and 293 passing yards per game.
He averaged 25.8 pass attempts and 194.4 yards per game when opponents scored fewer than 30 points.
There have been nine games over the past two seasons in which the Bills allowed 10 or fewer points.
Allen averaged 22.2 pass attempts in those games.
The Bills' increased difficulty in terms of offensive opponents raises Allen’s passing floor and potentially boosts his passing ceiling as the team could be pushed into more offensive shootouts.
The Sharp Football Analysis projections are aggressive in factoring in increased passing from Allen and are well above the Vegas passing yards total.
ESPN’s publicly available projections have a moderate increase in passing attempts and yardage from last year and are still more than 300 yards over the passing total.
Josh Allen Prop Bet Recommendation
- Over 3599.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
Josh Allen Longshot Recommendation
Before 2023, with Brian Daboll and Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinators, Allen posted 35 or more passing touchdowns in three consecutive seasons.
- 35 + Passing Touchdowns +800
- 40 + Passing Touchdowns +2000
| 2026 NFL Player Props |
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| Warren Sharp's Futures |
| Best Quarterback Overs |
| Best Quarterback Unders (Coming Soon) |
| Best Running Back Overs (Coming Soon) |
| Best Running Back Unders (Coming Soon) |
| Best Wide Receiver Overs (Coming Soon) |
| Best Wide Receiver Unders (Coming Soon) |
Jordan Love 2026 Over/Under Predictions
The Packers enter the season with uncertainty around their running back room.
Josh Jacobs was involved in an offseason domestic incident that is reportedly still under investigation, though no charges have been filed.
In addition to his off-the-field issues, Jacobs enters this year as a 28-year-old running back who has at least 250 touches in his seven previous seasons and was held to 4.0 yards per carry last year.
The Packers' depth behind Jacobs is questionable.
MarShawn Lloyd has managed to stay on the field for 6 carries in his two seasons since being drafted by the Packers.
The offensive line returns only two members from the starting five last season and is the 27th-ranked offensive line in Sharp Football’s unit rankings.
Matt LaFleur has leaned on an efficient running game since Jacobs’ arrival, but should Jacobs miss time or struggle because of the offensive line, more passing work for Jordan Love could result.
Micah Parsons opened training camp on the PUP and is not expected back in the opening month of the season, leaving a large hole on the defensive line.
In addition to missing one of the league's top pass rushers, Green Bay will have a more difficult slate of opponents.
Compared to last year, the Packers face an uphill battle to remain a playoff team.
As counterintuitive as that sounds, it may not be the worst thing for the Packers.
Love has provided elite efficiency in his three years as the starting quarterback.
Over the past three seasons, Love ranks third in EPA per play behind only Josh Allen and Brock Purdy.
In all three seasons with Love at quarterback, LaFleur’s offense has operated with a negative pass-rate above expectation.
Love enters the season with no injury concerns.
He could be relied upon more with the rushing attack facing questions, and the Packers could find themselves in more negative game scripts due to a more difficult schedule and without Parsons for the opening stretch of the season.
Early reports indicate that Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Matthew Golden will run the majority of the routes with fewer substitutions following the departure of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks.
With fewer substitutions and more receiver consistency, the offense could see an uptick in pace.
A potential increase in passing rate and pace would result in more play volume, boosting Love’s season-long passing ceiling.
Jordan Love Prop Bet Recommendation
- Over 3549.5 Passing Yards (+100)
Jordan Love Longshot Recommendation
- 4000+ Passing Yards (+230)