Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here! After months of anticipation, we’re back in action.
In this article, I’m focusing on the underdogs that can cover the spread and where to back the over or under in key games.
Whether it is a sleeper team ready to make noise or a sneaky game total that looks off, we’ll break down the numbers and highlight where value lies as the NFL season kicks off.
Week 1 Best Bet Prediction: Commanders +3 at Bucs
I have confidence in Dan Quinn‘s defensive prowess against Baker Mayfield (more on that in a bit).
Moreover, I’m optimistic about rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the second-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Daniels is touted as “the dual-threat quarterback a coach dreams of,” and his ability to both pass and run effectively should challenge the Buccaneers’ defense, particularly their front seven, which is ranked a concerning 28th entering the season.
Tampa’s pass rush concerns could afford Daniels valuable time in the pocket to make decisions and find open receivers. As a rookie in his NFL debut, the lack of professional game film on Daniels will make it challenging for the Bucs to prepare for his specific tendencies and abilities, potentially giving him an edge.
Even if Daniels faces rookie challenges, the Commanders have a potent weapon in Week 1 with a healthy Austin Ekeler.
Known for his versatility as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield, Ekeler is well-positioned to exploit the Buccaneers’ rushing defense, which ranked 30th in rushing grade last season. His presence as a reliable check-down option and screen pass target could significantly ease pressure on the young quarterback.
The combination of Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. provides the Commanders with a formidable 1-2 punch in the backfield. This, coupled with Daniels’ potential to command the offense, creates a multi-faceted attack that could prove challenging for the Bucs defense to contain.
Given these factors, I’m particularly bullish on the Commanders’ prospects in Week 1.
Week 1 Prediction: Commanders at Bucs Under 44
Baker Mayfield enjoyed a career-best season in 2023 under the guidance of offensive coordinator Dave Canales, throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns. However, the departure of Canales could disrupt that momentum.
With Liam Coen stepping in as the new offensive coordinator, Mayfield will be working with his third different OC in as many seasons, posing a challenge to his consistency.
One area of concern that could contribute to a potential underperformance is the Buccaneers’ red zone struggles. Last year, they converted just 48.08% of their opportunities, ranking 27th in the NFL. With a new coordinator and the possibility of Mayfield regressing, this red zone inefficiency could persist.
On defense, Dan Quinn, formerly the defensive coordinator for the Cowboys, is now the head coach of the Commanders.
Under Quinn, the Dallas defense excelled, ranking first in takeaways and ninth in points allowed per game. Quinn places a strong emphasis on pass rush and has a proven track record of developing effective pass rushers. Washington has bolstered its defense by adding edge rushers Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler Jr, and Clelin Ferrell.
The prospect of a Quinn-led defense facing Mayfield, who is adjusting to a new offensive system, makes this a challenging matchup for the Bucs offense. Quinn’s defensive acumen could exploit any inconsistencies in Mayfield’s play, especially given the changes in Tampa Bay’s offensive coaching staff.
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Week 1 Prediction: Cowboys +2.5 at Browns
When analyzing the Browns offense, the absence of Nick Chubb looms large.
Chubb, one of the NFL’s most productive ball-carriers, will start the season on the reserve/PUP list, missing at least the first four games. His career average of 5.3 yards per carry, second only to Jamaal Charles in the Super Bowl Era, underscores his elite production.
In Chubb’s absence, the Browns will rely heavily on third-year running back Jerome Ford.
While Ford had a solid 2023 season, averaging 4.0 yards per carry, he fell short of Chubb’s impressive 6.1 yards per carry in limited action before injury. This dropoff in the running game efficiency could significantly impact the Browns’ offensive strategy.
The pressure now shifts to quarterback Deshaun Watson and the passing game.
Watson’s tenure with the Browns has been marred by inconsistency, playing just 12 games due to injury and suspension since joining the team. His performance has been underwhelming, throwing 9 interceptions and recording more turnover-worthy plays (14) than big-time throws (8).
Facing the Cowboys defense presents a formidable challenge for Watson and the offense.
Dallas boasts not only a strong pass rush, led by the elite duo of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, but also enters the 2024 season with the projected fifth-best secondary in the league.
Parsons, who ranked second in the NFL last year in quarterback pressures, spearheads a defense that finished fifth in passing yards allowed in 2023.
The Cowboys’ defensive strategy will likely focus on creating pressure on Watson, leveraging their strong pass rush to force errors, and allowing their talented secondary to capitalize on turnover opportunities. This two-pronged approach could exploit Watson’s recent struggles and the Browns’ potential overreliance on the passing game in Chubb’s absence.
Week 1 Prediction: Raiders +3 at Chargers
The Raiders’ defensive line emerges as their most formidable asset, anchored by the dynamic trio of Maxx Crosby, Malcolm Koonce, and newcomer Christian Wilkins.
Crosby’s impressive 2023 season, finishing eighth in the NFL with 14.5 sacks, coupled with Wilkins’ career-high 9 sacks last year, forms a potent pass-rushing combination.
While the Chargers’ offensive line should theoretically improve with Joe Alt replacing Trey Pipkins (who ranked 28th in pressure rate allowed), this upgrade remains unproven in regular-season action. Until demonstrated otherwise, Crosby’s disruptive presence poses a significant threat to the Chargers’ offensive rhythm.
The Chargers offense faces additional challenges following the departure of their top two receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
This loss has left their receiving corps ranked 31st entering the 2024 season, marking it as their most glaring weakness. Such a deficiency in the passing game could potentially simplify the Raiders’ defensive strategy and help keep the score competitive.
Further complicating matters for the Chargers, quarterback Justin Herbert‘s late start to practice (August 19) due to injury combined with the transition to new head coach Jim Harbaugh‘s system may lead to early-season adjustments. This period of adaptation could provide the Raiders with a strategic advantage.
The confluence of these factors – the Raiders’ strengthened defensive line, the Chargers’ depleted receiving corps, and potential early-season growing pains under a new coaching regime – suggests a favorable scenario for the Raiders to remain competitive in this matchup.
Week 1 Prediction: Jaguars at Dolphins Under 49.5
The formidable duo of Josh Hines–Allen and Travon Walker anchors the Jaguars’ front seven.
Their complementary styles – Allen’s refined pass-rushing techniques paired with Walker’s raw power and length – present diverse challenges for offensive lines. This combination made them one of the NFL’s most effective duos in 2023, amassing 27.5 sacks, the highest total for any pair in the league last year.
This defensive strength is particularly advantageous against the Dolphins’ offensive line, which enters Week 1 ranked a concerning 25th.
The unit faces significant challenges, with new center Aaron Brewer already managing a training camp injury. The offseason departures of key players Robert Hunt and Connor Williams have left notable gaps in the interior line.
The resulting lack of cohesion due to injuries and new personnel in crucial positions presents a vulnerability that the Jaguars defense can exploit, potentially limiting Tua Tagovailoa‘s ability to orchestrate explosive plays.
On offense, Trevor Lawrence‘s performance has been inconsistent and closer to average than elite at this stage.
Notably, Lawrence suffered more than any other quarterback from dropped passes last year in terms of expected points added (EPA), according to Warren Sharp’s NFL Preview. This inconsistency could be further exposed against Miami’s secondary, which is ranked third overall entering the new season.
The Dolphins have bolstered their already strong secondary by adding cornerback Kendall Fuller and safety Jordan Poyer, both considered elite at their positions. A healthy Jalen Ramsey remains one of the league’s top cornerbacks — worth noting he did miss practice Wednesday — while free safety Jevon Holland impressed with a 90.4 PFF grade in 2023.
This formidable defensive backfield presents a significant challenge for Lawrence and the Jaguars passing game.
Given the strengths of both defenses and the potential limitations of each offense, this matchup could result in a low-scoring affair.