2026 NFL Overs: Best Receiver Prop Bets
- D.J. Moore — Over 824.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- D.J. Moore — Over 59.5 Receptions (-115)
- Colston Loveland — Over 824.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
2026 NFL Longshot Receiver Prop Bets
- D.J. Moore — Most Regular Season Receiving Yards (+8000)
- Colston Loveland — Over 1000 Receiving Yards (+200)
Fantasy football projections, like those done by Rich Hribar, can be a guide to help identify overvalued or undervalued players in the current betting markets.
Using our projections, I will identify a couple of players at each position who we are higher on than the current market.
We will also look at some longshot bets on teams that could significantly alter their strategy from previous seasons.
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A $100 bettor is up $7,944 following Warren's futures since this package was created.
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D.J. Moore 2026 Over/Under Prediction
D.J. Moore is coming off two lackluster seasons by his standards, but a new environment and the opportunity to play with Josh Allen may have created the perfect recipe for an excellent buy-low opportunity.
Moore has been seen smiling throughout training camp as he enters 2026 in a dramatically different situation after being traded from Chicago to Buffalo.
Instead of playing in an environment where something was clearly not right personally and in a Ben Johnson offense where his target share declined significantly, Moore now gets to catch passes from a former MVP quarterback while reuniting with Joe Brady, his former offensive coordinator in Carolina.
The biggest reason to bet Moore’s over is simple: Allen is without a doubt the best quarterback Moore has ever had passing him the ball.
Moore has spent most of his career dealing with inconsistent quarterback situations, yet he has still exceeded 1,000 receiving yards in four seasons.
He enters his ninth season averaging more than 1,000 receiving yards per season.
Moore is also a huge upgrade at the wide receiver position for Allen.
The Bills have not produced a 1,000-yard-wide receiver in either of the previous two seasons since Stefon Diggs’ departure, while their average target depth ranked last in the NFL in 2025.
Moore doesn't need an unreasonable target share to beat his season-long receiving-yardage line, but he should command a target share over 20% given the receiver depth in Buffalo.
The Bills entered the 2024 season with a new slogan: Everybody Eats.
Sean McDermott tried to spin that into a positive after the Bills parted ways with Diggs.
However, targets are earned.
The “Everybody Eats” slogan was admitting to everyone what was glaringly obvious: There wasn’t an alpha target earner on the roster.
In an interview, Ian Rapoport talked about Moore as a breakout candidate for the upcoming fantasy season, but fantasy gamers should be aware that “the Buffalo Bills like to spread the ball around.”
Again, this is a mythical statement and is a byproduct of a lackluster receiving room.
Diggs was a member of the Buffalo Bills from 2020 to 2023.
In those four years, he led all NFL receivers in receptions, was second in targets, and had 28.0% of the Bills' total team targets over that span.
Before last season, Moore had four consecutive seasons in which he had over 26% of his team’s targets.
In 2021, Brady’s final season as the Carolina Panthers offensive coordinator, Moore had 28.3% of the team's targets and 40.2% of the team’s total air yards.
In that season, Moore caught passes from Cam Newton, Sam Darnold, and PJ Walker and still exceeded 1,150 receiving yards.
The projections in the Sharp Football Analysis Draft Kit are bullish on Moore joining the Bills.
Our projections have Moore projected for 83 receptions and more than 1,100 receiving yards, well over the season-long yardage prop.
One of the biggest risks of betting season-long overs is injury.
Moore has played every game in the past five seasons and has played 15 or more games in all eight seasons to start his career.
Moore has played through injury in the past, which helps give him the opportunity to continue to accumulate volume over the full season.
The market may be overreacting to Moore’s 2025 season and overconfident that his decline is age-related.
In addition to our projections supporting the over, in the Wide Receiver Trends article, Rich Hribar highlighted that when searching for wide receivers to exceed expectations, one of the more common hits comes from players changing situations, making Moore a solid bet this season.
D.J. Moore Prop Bet Recommendation
- Over 824.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Over 59.5 Receptions (-115)
D.J. Moore Longshot Recommendation
- Most Regular Season Receiving Yards (+8000)
| 2026 NFL Player Props |
|---|
| Warren Sharp's Futures |
| Best Quarterback Overs |
| Best Quarterback Unders |
| Best Running Back Overs |
| Best Running Back Unders |
| Best Receiving Overs |
| Best Receiving Unders (Coming Soon) |
Colston Loveland 2026 Over/Under Prediction
Colston Loveland enters his sophomore NFL season as a breakout candidate.
Loveland was selected in the top 10 of the 2025 NFL Draft and entered the league with an elite tight end profile and skill set.
Loveland started his rookie season slowly as he missed part of training camp with an injury and played a part-time role in the Bears offense in the opening months of the season.
He opened his rookie season with just 5 receptions and 54 yards in the opening five games while he was still establishing himself within Ben Johnson‘s offense and managing an injury.
Loveland’s role and production accelerated dramatically as the season progressed.
He finished the regular season and playoffs with four consecutive double-digit target games, including a 15-target game in the Bears' playoff victory against the Packers.
The late-season production provides a much better indication of what Loveland could look like with a full-time role throughout the entire season.
Loveland shared the field with rookie wide receiver Luther Burden for 173 passing plays and generated more targets, air yards, and receiving yards than the hyped second-year receiver.
Both Loveland and Burden are projected for increasing roles in Year 2.
However, Loveland may still be overlooked.
Loveland led the Bears in receiving yards despite only being on the field for 63.8% of the team's dropbacks.
With the Bears trading D.J. Moore and not investing much capital into a replacement, there is a significant opportunity for Loveland to increase his target share in an ascending offense.
In the final five weeks of the regular season, the Bears had multiple tight ends on the field on 56.9% of the offensive plays.
The increase of 13 personnel benefited Loveland the most as he averaged 3.34 yards per route and had 32.4% of the team's targets with three tight ends on the field.
Johnson recently did an interview in which he stated that he wants the 2026 Bears to be the highest-scoring offense ever.
The Bears have the seventh-most difficult strength of schedule in 2026, after the ninth-easiest last season.
Injuries to Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon are concerning for a defense which is not particularly deep with talent in the secondary, which could force the Bears into more shootouts, boosting Loveland’s ceiling.
The Sharp Football Analysis projections have Loveland projected for 90 receptions and 1,068 receiving yards, which is not unreasonable given his late-season production.
In the final game of the regular season and two playoff games, Loveland was targeted on 43.3%, 31.3%, and 37.0% of his routes.
That is unsustainable, but it indicates that Loveland can push for a 22-25% target share through an entire season.
Including the playoffs, Loveland averaged 9.9 air yards per target, which led all tight ends in the league, and gained 20 or more yards on 21.4% of his receptions.
The ability to operate deeper down the field and create explosives means that a relatively modest increase in targets can produce substantial increases in yardage.
Another important component in Loveland’s ascent is Caleb Williams.
Williams registered an off-target throw on 15.9% of his passes targeted at the rookie tight end last season.
Entering his third season in the NFL and second season with Johnson, Williams appears more comfortable running the offense than a year ago.
Even a slight improvement in accuracy benefits Loveland.
Given the way his role expanded throughout 2025, the 2026 season could be the year Loveland goes from promising rookie to legitimate NFL receiving weapon who is mentioned in the same sentence as Brock Bowers and Trey McBride when discussing the league’s high-upside tight ends.
Colston Loveland Prop Bet Recommendation
- Over 824.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Colston Loveland Longshot Recommendation
- Over 1000 Receiving Yards (+200)