Ben Johnson says he wants the highest-scoring offense in league history, but perhaps he shouldn't.
Scoring the most points and winning the Super Bowl have not usually gone hand in hand.
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Is Ben Johnson Right to Want the Highest Scoring Offense in History?
In a profile about him appearing in The Athletic, Ben Johnson said:
“I want to have the highest-scoring offense ever, which happens to be the 2013 Denver Broncos. I know how many points per game they scored [37.9], and I want to surpass them. I want shutouts. I want blowouts.”
While Johnson wants to win a Super Bowl, he said his goals are actually beyond winning a Super Bowl:
“Our goal is to win the Super Bowl, but I want more than that. The moon is the Super Bowl, but we’re shooting beyond that, for the stars. And I want these players to feel that each and every single day they come in.”
While I admire the bravado and coach speak of trying to “out-talk” the rest of the NFL, who have their sights set on (simply) winning a Super Bowl, the question becomes: Is this even a good thing to want?
Many would think it’s harmless and just said in good fun.
I disagree.
If this is how Johnson plans to coach the Bears, I assume he will be trying to run up the score when he can.
I assume that means he’s going to be keeping in his starters deep into games, even if they are blowouts.
I assume he’s going to try to ramp up the tempo.
These are things you would have top of mind for every game as you’re planning out strategy in the week leading up to kickoff, and would be constantly thinking about throughout each game.
If that is the case, I have concerns about the long-term ramifications.
Let’s back up.
The #1 goal each year should be to win a Super Bowl.
Anything beyond that is gravy.
To win a Super Bowl, you need to win as many regular season games as possible.
You MUST secure that first-round bye in the playoffs (of which there is only one in each conference).
The 17-game season that is the modern-day NFL is a war of attrition.
More than ever before, whichever teams emerge healthiest have a big advantage in the playoffs.
When you have the opportunity to lead in a blowout by 17 points in the fourth quarter, the smart move is to slow down and guarantee that you win while keeping your starters healthy and fresh, so they have the best edge the following week.
That could mean running the ball more, reducing pace, pulling certain starters or anything else, so long as you don’t do it too early and risk blowing a lead.
What it doesn’t mean is to continue to play the final five minutes when up 17 points like you played the first five minutes when the score is 0-0 and you’re working aggressively to build an insurmountable lead.
Having a rest advantage over your next opponent is helpful, and it’s backed by data because the inverse is true.
I went back to 2010 for this next analysis.
When a team is off an overtime game and their opponent is not, those teams the following week are:
- 201-266 (43.0%) outright
- 208-246-13 (45.8%) against the spread
And when you fix it to exclude overtime teams off a bye or playing an opponent who is off a short-week game, it’s even more pronounced:
- 168-224 (42.4%) outright
- 165-212-12 (43.8%) against the spread
These teams who had to play longer (more minutes) than their next opponent MASSIVELY underachieve compared to expectations.
If having to play longer in a game (the definition of overtime) hurts a team the next week, the opposite can’t hurt.
Building a lead to be able to pull starters late certainly should give an advantage the following week.
And if the goal is winning games, the goal should be to build that lead and pull starters, not keep them in to run up the score by expending energy that’s not necessary.
But now let’s zoom out and look at the bigger picture.
How have the highest-scoring teams in NFL history done in the postseason?
I again went back to 2010 to dig in.
Ben Johnson is correct: The highest-scoring team was the Denver Broncos with 606 points.
They didn’t win the Super Bowl.
In fact, there have been 22 teams that scored at least 500 points during the regular season since 2010.
None of them won the Super Bowl.
0-22.
ZERO!
Then I went and just looked at the top two highest-scoring offenses each year since 2010.
Of the 32 teams (2 per year, 16 years), only ONE won the Super Bowl.
The 2022 Chiefs, who scored the most points of the 2022 season but still didn’t crack 500, let alone 606, were the only team.
I went back just to break down the five highest-scoring teams since 2010:
606 points – 2013 Denver Broncos; Beat Chargers & Patriots; Lost Super Bowl XLVIII to Seahawks, 43-8
565 points – 2018 Kansas City Chiefs; Beat Colts in Divisional Round; Lost AFC Championship to Patriots, 37-31 (OT)
564 points – 2024 Detroit Lions; Lost Divisional Round to Commanders, 45-31
560 points – 2011 Green Bay Packers; Lost Divisional Round to Giants, 37-20
557 points – 2012 New England Patriots; Beat Texans in Divisional Round; Lost AFC Championship to Ravens, 28-13
Of the five highest-scoring teams, only one even made it to the Super Bowl.
The bottom line here is the highest-scoring teams likely have great offenses.
Great offenses win games, make the playoffs, and have a chance from there.
But aiming to set the record for the most points scored in an NFL season is a deeply flawed and completely unnecessary objective.
There has been no superior benefit to scoring a ton of points in a season.
The 22 teams with 500+ points in a season since 2010 have zero Super Bowl rings.
The ultimate goal should still be to win a Super Bowl.
If you need to score a ton of points to support a bad defense en route to winning a Super Bowl, then you do what you need to do.
But you don’t run up the score for no reason and stress your starters in the fourth quarters of blowouts simply because you’re trying to set a scoring record.
It won’t help you win your very next game, which is the only way you’re going to earn a first-round bye.
Which, ironically, is actually a very beneficial goal, rather than scoring the most points in NFL history.
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