Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here! After months of anticipation, we’re back in action.
Whether it is a sleeper team ready to make noise or a sneaky game total that looks off, we’ll break down the numbers and highlight where value lies as the NFL season kicks off.
Week 1 Best Bet Prediction: Commanders +3 at Bucs
I have confidence in Dan Quinn‘s defensive prowess against Baker Mayfield (more on that in a bit).
Moreover, I’m optimistic about rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the second-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Daniels is touted as “the dual-threat quarterback a coach dreams of,” and his ability to both pass and run effectively should challenge the Buccaneers’ defense, particularly their front seven, which is ranked a concerning 28th entering the season.
Tampa’s pass rush concerns could afford Daniels valuable time in the pocket to make decisions and find open receivers. As a rookie in his NFL debut, the lack of professional game film on Daniels will make it challenging for the Bucs to prepare for his specific tendencies and abilities, potentially giving him an edge.
Even if Daniels faces rookie challenges, the Commanders have a potent weapon in Week 1 with a healthy Austin Ekeler.
Known for his versatility as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield, Ekeler is well-positioned to exploit the Buccaneers’ rushing defense, which ranked 30th in rushing grade last season. His presence as a reliable check-down option and screen pass target could significantly ease pressure on the young quarterback.
The combination of Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. provides the Commanders with a formidable 1-2 punch in the backfield. This, coupled with Daniels’ potential to command the offense, creates a multi-faceted attack that could prove challenging for the Bucs defense to contain.
Given these factors, I’m particularly bullish on the Commanders’ prospects in Week 1.
Week 1 Prediction: Commanders at Bucs Under 44
Baker Mayfield enjoyed a career-best season in 2023 under the guidance of offensive coordinator Dave Canales, throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns. However, the departure of Canales could disrupt that momentum.
With Liam Coen stepping in as the new offensive coordinator, Mayfield will be working with his third different OC in as many seasons, posing a challenge to his consistency.
One area of concern that could contribute to a potential underperformance is the Buccaneers’ red zone struggles. Last year, they converted just 48.08% of their opportunities, ranking 27th in the NFL. With a new coordinator and the possibility of Mayfield regressing, this red zone inefficiency could persist.
On defense, Dan Quinn, formerly the defensive coordinator for the Cowboys, is now the head coach of the Commanders.
Under Quinn, the Dallas defense excelled, ranking first in takeaways and ninth in points allowed per game. Quinn places a strong emphasis on pass rush and has a proven track record of developing effective pass rushers. Washington has bolstered its defense by adding edge rushers Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler Jr, and Clelin Ferrell.
The prospect of a Quinn-led defense facing Mayfield, who is adjusting to a new offensive system, makes this a challenging matchup for the Bucs offense. Quinn’s defensive acumen could exploit any inconsistencies in Mayfield’s play, especially given the changes in Tampa Bay’s offensive coaching staff.