Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here! After months of anticipation, we’re back in action.
Whether it is a sleeper team ready to make noise or a sneaky game total that looks off, we’ll break down the numbers and highlight where value lies as the NFL season kicks off.
Week 1 Prediction: Cowboys +2.5 at Browns
When analyzing the Browns offense, the absence of Nick Chubb looms large.
Chubb, one of the NFL’s most productive ball-carriers, will start the season on the reserve/PUP list, missing at least the first four games. His career average of 5.3 yards per carry, second only to Jamaal Charles in the Super Bowl Era, underscores his elite production.
In Chubb’s absence, the Browns will rely heavily on third-year running back Jerome Ford.
While Ford had a solid 2023 season, averaging 4.0 yards per carry, he fell short of Chubb’s impressive 6.1 yards per carry in limited action before injury. This dropoff in the running game efficiency could significantly impact the Browns’ offensive strategy.
The pressure now shifts to quarterback Deshaun Watson and the passing game.
Watson’s tenure with the Browns has been marred by inconsistency, playing just 12 games due to injury and suspension since joining the team. His performance has been underwhelming, throwing 9 interceptions and recording more turnover-worthy plays (14) than big-time throws (8).
Facing the Cowboys defense presents a formidable challenge for Watson and the offense.
Dallas boasts not only a strong pass rush, led by the elite duo of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, but also enters the 2024 season with the projected fifth-best secondary in the league.
Parsons, who ranked second in the NFL last year in quarterback pressures, spearheads a defense that finished fifth in passing yards allowed in 2023.
The Cowboys’ defensive strategy will likely focus on creating pressure on Watson, leveraging their strong pass rush to force errors, and allowing their talented secondary to capitalize on turnover opportunities. This two-pronged approach could exploit Watson’s recent struggles and the Browns’ potential overreliance on the passing game in Chubb’s absence.