Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here! After months of anticipation, we’re back in action.
Whether it is a sleeper team ready to make noise or a sneaky game total that looks off, we’ll break down the numbers and highlight where value lies as the NFL season kicks off.
Week 1 Prediction: Jaguars at Dolphins Under 49.5
The formidable duo of Josh Hines–Allen and Travon Walker anchors the Jaguars’ front seven.
Their complementary styles – Allen’s refined pass-rushing techniques paired with Walker’s raw power and length – present diverse challenges for offensive lines. This combination made them one of the NFL’s most effective duos in 2023, amassing 27.5 sacks, the highest total for any pair in the league last year.
This defensive strength is particularly advantageous against the Dolphins’ offensive line, which enters Week 1 ranked a concerning 25th.
The unit faces significant challenges, with new center Aaron Brewer already managing a training camp injury. The offseason departures of key players Robert Hunt and Connor Williams have left notable gaps in the interior line.
The resulting lack of cohesion due to injuries and new personnel in crucial positions presents a vulnerability that the Jaguars defense can exploit, potentially limiting Tua Tagovailoa‘s ability to orchestrate explosive plays.
On offense, Trevor Lawrence‘s performance has been inconsistent and closer to average than elite at this stage.
Notably, Lawrence suffered more than any other quarterback from dropped passes last year in terms of expected points added (EPA), according to Warren Sharp’s NFL Preview. This inconsistency could be further exposed against Miami’s secondary, which is ranked third overall entering the new season.
The Dolphins have bolstered their already strong secondary by adding cornerback Kendall Fuller and safety Jordan Poyer, both considered elite at their positions. A healthy Jalen Ramsey remains one of the league’s top cornerbacks — worth noting he did miss practice Wednesday — while free safety Jevon Holland impressed with a 90.4 PFF grade in 2023.
This formidable defensive backfield presents a significant challenge for Lawrence and the Jaguars passing game.
Given the strengths of both defenses and the potential limitations of each offense, this matchup could result in a low-scoring affair.