Each week, Coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread throughout the 2022 NFL season.
We went 2-1 last week with the Bengals beating the Chiefs for the third time in a row and Miami going out and losing to San Francisco but hitting the over in the process.
Baltimore Ravens (+2) at Pittsburgh Steelers
As the Baltimore Ravens head to Pittsburgh up take on the Steelers, the quarterback job is up in the air. Lamar Jackson hurt his knee and is said to be “week to week” by head coach John Harbaugh. I think the line of Ravens plus two reflects that Tyler Huntley will be the starter as Jackon is now listed as doubtful.
I don’t mind backing Huntley at all here against Pittsburgh. Last week versus Denver, Lamar Jackson started and was 3-for-4 for 11 yards and was sacked two times early on before leaving with a knee injury. Huntley came in and was 27-of-32 for 187 yards with two sacks and a pick. He also ran 10 times for 41 yards, including a crucial fourth down run and a touchdown that won the game for the Ravens.
While the YPA was not overly impressive, the way he carried himself, and the fact that he finished third among all quarterbacks this past week in accuracy by CPOE according to Next Gen Stats was. So Tyler Huntley proved what he has proven before, that he is a capable quarterback.
I would like to see Baltimore use Devin Duvernay and Isaiah Likely more often as I think both have the ability to really help the Ravens on offense. Kenyan Drake is serviceable at running back as is Justice Hill with his 5.5 YPC.
Baltimore comes in No. 4 in overall DVOA, No. 6 in offense, and No. 9 on defense. Pittsburgh comes in much lower at No. 18, No. 21, and No. 13 respectively. So by one set of standards, Baltimore is much better on both sides of the ball, yet the Steelers are two-point favorites.
I am trying to find where the advantage is for Pittsburgh. The Ravens are top 10 in efficiency passing (eighth) and running (second) and the Steelers are middle of the pack defensively against both. The Ravens have scored 23 or more points in four of the last six games and even in the ones they did not, against the Panthers and the Broncos, they still won those two games.
The Steelers come in playing better since their bye week having won three of four which is why I assume Vegas has the line the way it is. But those games were against Cincinnati, who is good, New Orleans, Indianapolis, and Atlanta, who have an average ranking of No. 24 in the league in DVOA.
Kenny Pickett has four touchdowns and eight interceptions. His average time to throw is 2.89, which is No. 29 on the list of qualified quarterbacks. That occasionally leads to broken plays where a man is open, but more often leads to pressures, sacks, and holding penalties. Pickett does have a young receiver who I got to coach in the Under Armour All-Star Game when he was leaving high school and the kid is a freak. George Pickens has made some amazing catches, but he averages only three catches a game and less than 50 YPG. Diontae Johnson is the leading receiver averaging less than 50 YPG. In the running game, Pickett helps with 23 YPG but Najee Harris is averaging only 3.8 YPC. The offense of Pittsburgh doesn’t put any pressure on the opposing offense to make plays.
Give me Baltimore +2!
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
The next game is a big one in the AFC East as Mike White and the New York Jets come in to Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Bills. Three games separate the top and bottom of the AFC East so every game is big right now. Buffalo is two games ahead of the Jets so this could bring them to a one game difference.
Mike White has been a Jekyl and Hyde of sorts. The last two weeks he has gone from being No. 8 in accuracy to No. 28. Now, to be fair, White threw for 369 yards in a game where they were behind and against a defense that is very poor against the pass. (By the way the 5-7 Lions are FAVORED against the 10-2 Vikings this week. I am not sure I have seen that before but I am betting Jared Goff over in passing yards no matter what number they hang up there if that tells you what I think of the Vikings pass defense.)
I still haven’t forgotten the Jets’ 103 total yards against the Patriots a few weeks ago in what was one of the worst displays of offense I have seen in a long time. The Jets are middle of the pack in rushing and passing YPG. The Bills defense is very good against both.
The Bills come in ranked No. 1 overall in DVOA, No. 4 on offense and defense. The Jets come in ranked No. 9, No. 19 on offense, and No. 5 on defense. I’ll admit their defense has played really well and Sauce Gardner has been as advertised. He creates turnovers which wins games. But Allen will be ready after a close one in New York in which he threw two interceptions.
I watched the game and it looked like the Bills were going through the motions. The Jets beat them in the turnover battle and sacked Allen five times. He tried to force the ball to Stefon Diggs and didn’t use the running game like he should. Allen made up 86 yards compared to 48 yards from Devin Singletary and the running backs. They have improved that since their last date with the Jets and I look for them to use it even more to set up some better passing lanes by making those linebackers have to come down hill and slowing down that line with a little more play action. I expect much higher than their normal 20% season average on passing plays.
The Bills have played some close games over the past few weeks. They have lost three games this year by a total of eight points. But finally they busted out against the Patriots and won by 14 points. That is more like the Bills we know that usually lead in point differential. I think they get ahead, take the Jets seriously, put them in a bad spot, and win this game by 20 points.
I will wait and see if I can get -9.5 points over the Jets but will play -10.
Extras
Bonus guesses: Goff over passing yards as mentioned above, Browns/Bengals over 46.5, and Giants/Eagles over 44.
Have a great week!