Each week, Coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach’s perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread throughout the 2022 NFL season.
Went 1-1 on write-ups last week and 2-1 on extras. The Bills have let me down twice now against the Jets as giving up that safety with 7 mins left cost us!
Baltimore RAVENS (+3) at Cleveland BROWNS
Tyler Huntley and the Ravens have quietly won six of their last seven games after beginning the year 3-3. Huntley wasn’t the starter in all those but he is 2-0 as a starter. At first glance, I was thinking that he hasn’t done a lot for them. For sure they aren’t calling the offense the same but maybe this is how the Ravens have to win.
Their defense started off rocky this year. Slowly but surely it has been getting better and better. During those last seven games I mentioned above, the Ravens have given up 15.6 PPG. The acquisition of Roquan Smith has certainly helped them. as they began 3-3. The first six games the Ravens were giving up over 50% more points at 23.5 PPG. That alone will win you more ball games.
With Huntley in for Lamar Jackson, they became a more old fashioned run the ball and play defense team and it has worked well, albeit close games. I think it has helped them gain even more confidence in their defense and as they start trusting Huntley more and more, this can only help.
What I really like about this week is that they are going against the No. 30 rush efficiency defense and No. 25 in simple YPC in the Browns. That plays right into what the Ravens have been lately. By the way, the Browns are No. 25 overall and No. 20 against the pass so even if the Ravens need to pass, they aren’t exactly going up against a rock wall there either.
I am a believer in Tyler Huntley. When he came in for Lamar Jackson two weeks ago, he finished third behind Joe Burrow in quarterback accuracy by CPOE. He is not nearly the threat running that Lamar is but in the last two weeks he has run for two crucial first downs on fourth down and a game-winning touchdown inside the last minute. I wish they would get Devin Duvernay involved some more personally as I think he has some explosive play potential, but they are winning so I don’t think that’s going to happen.
The quarterback that everyone needs to worry about is Deshaun Watson. I don’t mean worrying about him beating you either. I think he has been on a questionably bad team in the Texans with some good parts around him at times but a bad offensive line. His first week back he was the worst in the league regarding accuracy. Week 2 he cleaned that part up and finished in the top half at least. He still made many questionable decisions and was very late on a lot of throws and has thrown an interception each week he has been back. I don’t think that changes this week.
The running attack they have that everyone was once afraid of, isn’t currently scaring anyone, especially on short-yardage plays when the Browns have inexcusably been using Kareem Hunt over Nick Chubb at times. Chubb is one on only three backs in the NFL to average over five YPC over the last three years. And when they need a yard, they have been taking him out. To top it all off, Watson needs help from that running game and they will be running against the No. 7 rush defense in DVOA.
To everyone’s naked eye, Baltimore is the better team. On paper, they are for sure the better team. And if you just like playing who’s hot, again, they have won six of seven. Add to it they are getting three points and I thought at first this was one of those sucker lines. But I believe it is more that the Ravens are flying low under the radar, Lamar Jackson is still not supposed to be playing, and that first impression of losing three of their first six games has oddsmakers thinking too lowly of them. The ONLY thing the Browns have over them is the home game. It won’t be enough.
GIVE ME THE +3 and we probably won’t need any of it as the Ravens win this by a TD.
Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4)
28-18-26. That sounds like a lock combination. It sort of us. It’s the combination of numbers that describes the Jaguars season. In the first three games of the season, they averaged 28 PPG and they went 2-1. In the next seven games, they averaged 18.7 PPG and they went 1-6. In their last three games, they averaged 26 PPG and have gone 2-1.
Watching the press conferences of Doug Pederson, I sense that he thinks Trevor Lawrence and he are on the same page. In those last three games, he has thrown for 868 yards, seven touchdowns, and only one interception. What I really like his that he is running less down the field and moving around behind the LOS more and finding scrambling receivers when the play breaks down.
Meanwhile, that once very scary Dallas Cowboys defense isn’t nearly as scary as it was a few weeks ago. After giving up a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter against Green Bay, they looked like otherworldly monsters against Minnesota. The Giants played them within a score AT Dallas, the Colts were the Colts, and Houston played them within four points despite the Cowboys being 17.5-point favorites.
All those games were against stationary quarterbacks too. Think about it, Cousins, Ryan, and Mills. The only one that is not is Daniel Jones. Against a semi-mobile Aaron Rodgers, he moved around just enough to put up 31 points including a 14-point fourth quarter. Justin Fields had maybe his best game as a pro against them. Jalen Hurts didn’t look too scared either. Before that, they had Wentz and Stafford of the Commanders and Rams. I think we are on to the fact that they terrorize pocket guys and everyone else has hurt them some.
Trevor Lawrence has the ability to get away from that rush, and make them pay some. And again, I like that he is making them pay with his arm. I think Doug Pederson may be the best playcaller in the game right now, and he doesn’t like the Cowboys.
Offensively, they will get their points and big plays this week. The Jags defense is No. 30 versus the pass but is a respectable No. 16 against the run, where the Cowboys really build their game strategy from. Without the running game to rely on, it will be a little more difficult. If you read my stuff here or on Twitter, you know I am a Dak Prescott fan. But he has been making some bad decisions with the ball since he came back and has been turning the ball over with frequency. Dak has appeared in nine games this year and has thrown nine interceptions including at least one in seven of the nine games. His touchdown to interception ratio is 14:9. That is not going to get it done over the long haul.
I love that the Cowboys are leaning on Ezekiel Elliott less and less and getting the ball to Tony Pollard more and more. Pollard got the ball 19 times last week versus 18 for Zeke. The week before it was 20-14 Zeke, and the week before that versus the Vikings, it was 21-16 Pollard. That has been good for the Dallas offense as Pollard is a real threat for explosive plays every time he gets the ball. And according to Next Gen Stats, he is No. 2 on the list for running backs in yards over expected. Ezekiel Elliott, while ranking very high on the salary list, is No. 32 on that list. The Cowboys seem to have figured that out over the last few weeks.
But that Cowboy ability to not know how to lead at the end, giving up late scores to the Packers, Giants, Bears, and Texans, is enough to make me think that the Jaguars have two ways to cover this spread. They certainly can just play well enough to keep it close or win. But the Cowboys have shown that they will give up the backdoor cover pretty dang easily as well.
I think the Jaguars probably win this game in a close shootout. Jacksonville 30, Cowboys 27. Give me the Jaguars plus the four and give me the over 47.
Extras
Vikings -3.5 over the Colts, Lions -1 over the Jets (wasn’t going to but Zach Wilson is starting and I absolutely play against the least accurate quarterback in the league and worst against pressure). I am not going to play the Bucs +3.5 because I said on this website I was done with them, but I would if I had not said that.
Have a great NFL week! All the teams are in action this week!