Each week, Coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread throughout the 2022 NFL season.
2-1 last week, so it’s been a great run. There are weeks that it’s been hard to pick winners and some that popped out that turned out to not be. That’s one of the beauties of football. Take a team too lightly, play conservative at the end of a game, decide to punt when you should go for it or kick a field goal when you should go for a touchdown, and the ATS winner sure changes and often times the winner of the game itself changes.
Seattle Seahawks (+10) at Kansas City Chiefs
The line is Chiefs -10. Let’s start with this. If you took all 14 games the Chiefs have played this year, you would have won a game with that line exactly three of those times and only one of those times out of the last seven games since their Week 8 bye.
I can attribute that to a few things but the most glaring is the defense. Out of the last five games they gave up at least 24 points to four different teams: Chargers (27), Cincinnati (27, Denver (28), and Houston (24). The only one that did not was the Rams who might not be able to score 24 on a pee wee team right now.
On the other side, had you gotten 10 points with the Seahawks this year, you would have won every single game ATS except against San Francisco. In that game, Seattle turned the ball over three times to the 49ers none.
On paper, it looks like an easy win for Kansas City. They are 11-3 and are playing for home field advantage in the playoffs. They are also returning home for the first time in four weeks. The Seahawks have lost four of their last five after being on a four game win streak.
So why do I like Seattle to cover this game? Let’s start with one of my favorite handicapping factors and many of you already know what you are about to read. Next Gen Stats has Geno Smith as the most accurate quarterback in the league through week 15 by CPOE and Patrick Mahomes is ranked No. 15.
Mahomes has the better offense and has Travis Kelce, arguably one of the best tight ends of all time. There is direct correlation between covering the spread and quarterback accuracy in this pass-centered league. It’s the difference between a first down and punting, a field goal or a touchdown, a pick or a completion, and a win or a loss. And right now, Smith is the best and Mahomes is middle of the pack. I know Mahomes can play, don’t get me wrong, but his ability to throw the ball off balance, with feet not set, and multiple arm angles is not just a gift, but a curse. It causes him to miss some throws, get some balls tipped and/or picked, etc. Geno is not flashy, but just puts the ball where it needs to be when he gets a chance.
Let’s look at some other things. The Chiefs come in this week ranked No. 6 in total DVOA, No. 1 on offense but just No. 24 on defense. The Seahawks come in ranked only five slots behind them at No. 11 in total DVOA, No. 12 on offense and No. 25 on defense.
What I really like is that Kansas City is No. 25 against the pass. That is what we need for a Seattle cover. Last week I wrote about the Jaguars might be able to cover because the weakness of the Cowboys defense was mobile quarterback versus their pressure. The weakness of this Chiefs defense allows Seattle to stay in the game or even get the backdoor cover.
Remember, if they are within 17 and get the last drive they can still get a push. I think they will be closer than that though. Kenneth Walker is a pretty good running back and one that the Chiefs have to at least worry about. I know that Tyler Lockett will be missing but Marquise Goodwin is serviceable and I think will be able to fill in nicely. That also may help the Seahawks really plan on some different ways to get DK Metcalf involved.
What should help Seattle a little is that their defense is better against the pass than the run. They are ranked No. 19 versus the pass and No. 28 against the run. Yes, the Chiefs can run with Isiah Pacheco but they throw the ball and trust it way more. At least that plays into the strength of the Seahawks' defense.
The Seahawks hold a large edge in special teams coming in No. 1 in DVOA versus the Chefs No. 18 ranking. I don’t factor all that in a ton personally but it is worth something.
Give me the Seattle Seahawks +10 versus the Chiefs this weekend. And for the second straight week, I like the over in the same game. I am playing over 49 in this game as I think both teams will be able to find some holes and exploit. I have Chiefs 33-29.
Detroit Lions (-2) at Carolina Panthers
I usually don’t play these types of games. You know, it’s the ones where you have to ask how in the world are the Lions favored by less than a field goal versus a team with Sam Darnold at quarterback? Well, that and against a team that is 5-9 and ranked almost 20 slots lower in overall team efficiency than they are. That’s where the Lions are, No. 9 overall and the Panthers check in at No. 28. And there are so many glaring discrepancies in the things that matter the most in games. The Lions have more explosive plays, are much better in the red zone, score touchdowns and not field goals, and simply play harder.
I’ll give you that the Panthers have won three of their last five games. But I also give you that the Lions have won six of seven and the only loss was a three-point loss to Buffalo on Thanksgiving. They have beaten the Packers, Giants, Jaguars, Vikings, and everyone’s latest new cinderella until the last two weeks, the Jets.
I am enamored with the coaching job the Lions have done planning around what Jared Goff does well and staying away from what he doesn’t. He is good off play-action, so the Lions run the ball well and do a lot of play-action. It gives him more time and makes the progressions more clear. They throw a lot of non-stationary routes so he doesn’t have to leave the ball in the air a long time to register an explosive play.
When they get to the red zone, they score touchdowns behind an offensive line that somehow turns up the run game and allows Jamaal Williams to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns. I don’t even think Barry Sanders ever did that. Add Amon-Ra St. Brown as a weapon to throw and even hand it to down there and a great job calling plays, and these guys can get out to a lead and keep on or come from behind as well.
The Panthers do not have that ability. They have a tough time coming from behind and they have a tough time really doing a whole lot on offense relative to the league, coming in at No. 29 in offensive DVOA. They have had some good moments but to win, they have to be able to get turnovers AND convert third downs. Unfortunately, they are ranked No. 30 in that last category and just cannot put enough of them together to mount a lot of good drives. Subsequently, they are No. 30 in total yards per game on offense as well which benefits the Lions since that is their weakness on defense.
On the other side of the equation, the Lions are No. 3 in total offense YPG and No. 10 in third down efficiency. They find a way to keep drives going and again, get the ball in the red zone where they do major damage.
Who are you scared of on the Panthers’ offense? Does Darnold scare you? How about their leading running back, D’Onta Foreman? I’ll admit D.J. Moore is a pretty good receiver at times but still has a long way to go to be able to beat you enough times to matter.
From a coach’s perspective, I look at it like this. You have a team trying to prove themselves every week in the Lions. They play with a chip on their shoulder, a fired-up coach, a staff that has done a remarkable job with their quarterback that no one wanted, and now have a real chance at a playoff spot.
In the Panthers, you have a team that gave away their best running back in Christian McCaffrey, lost their best receiver in Robbie Anderson, and have an interim coach.
This game may have “sucker bet” written all over it and if it does, I can live with losing with the better team. I’ll take the Lions -2 and feel good cheering for my new third favorite team.
Extras
Extra plays I thought about along the way that you might think about too would be the Saints +3 against the Browns, Tennessee -3.5 versus the Texans, the Eagles/Cowboys over 46 and a ML parlay with Dolphins/Ravens (+104).
Have a great NFL weekend and a Merry Christmas!