Each week, Coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread throughout the 2022 NFL season.
Before we get into it, let’s call it what it was last week. I stunk. I had been on a really nice run and last week crashed and burned with an 0-3 record. Seattle came in and laid an egg and I never saw it coming.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6)
I have not been a Justin Fields fan (love watching him play though) as a quarterback since he came into the league. I think his feet are not good when he throws, he makes poor decisions, and I have documented his accuracy problems (he is 34th in completion percentage over expectation out of quarterbacks that qualify). Now Jared Goff is ranked only four spots ahead of him currently, but Goff also has almost a 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio while Fields has 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Their passer ratings are vastly different as well.
The thing that really separates them besides offensive design is their poise in the pocket which leads to good or bad decisions. I get it, when you can run like Fields, it’s easy to take your eyes off the progressions and look for alleys to run. Goff has been so good in the red zone and at NOT throwing the ball to the other team. Fields hasn’t perfected that yet.
The teams come in worlds apart in DVOA as well with Detroit holding on to the No. 9 spot, and No. 6 on offense. Chicago comes in ranked No. 29 overall and No. 32 on defense.
Both teams are in the top 25% of the league in explosive plays and with these two defenses lining up to stop them, I doubt those numbers revert back to the NFL mean when they meet on the field. This usually would mean both teams are ranked equally as high in scoring but again, only Detroit is seeing it through to the endzone with 29 PPG and a whopping 32.1 PPG at home. Chicago averages 20.2 PPG overall and 20 at home.
Detroit returns home with a defense that gave up over 300 yards rushing last week and are No. 28 and No. 26 versus the pass and run, respectively. The Bears come into this game ranked No. 29 in both games.
With Amon-Ra St. Brown leading the way catching balls for Detroit and Jamaal Williams running the ball down around the goalline and leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns, they have a huge advantage when they get inside the 20. I expect them to have a field day with the Bears defense.
With Darnell Mooney being the best pass catcher the Bears could throw out on the field and Cole Kmet being maybe their actual best receiver, it leaves a lot to imagine when looking for a way to get the Bears in the endzone. BUT, if they are ever going to improve those PPG numbers it will be against the third-worst defense in the league.
Right now the Lions are six-point favorites in the game and the over/under is 52. The Lions’ team total is what really intrigues me. It is 29.5 With the Lions AVERAGING more than that at home and every defense they have played against has been better than the Bears, give me that team total over. I also want the Lions -6 and over the 52. Three total bets in one game is a max for me but I just see this being a 40-27 type game.
I like a lot of games this weekend so let’s take a different approach to a few of them.
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers
Minnesota is 11-0 in one-score games this year. I like to ride that streak and this is one long streak. I assume that this game will be a one-score game.
Green Bay, with the resurgence of Aaron Rodgers and the up-and-coming Christian Watson, has finally put together a three-game win streak. I am not impressed with who they did it against: the Rams, Bears, and Dolphins.
Minnesota has beaten those same Dolphins, they also beat the Bills on the road, oh and came back from an NFL-record deficit of 33-0 in a game. They are starting to really believe they are a good team and that confidence will help in many areas.
Right now, the Vikings are getting 3.5 and I’ll take it with Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson.
Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
The battle for the NFC South was always going to go through Tampa. I just didn’t think it would be a 7-8 Tampa. Carolina sucks. The Bucs look like they suck too but just not as bad.
People are giving Carolina too much credit for the job they did against the Lions defense running the ball. The Bucs defense is way better than that and last week may have finally (I have thought that before) helped them turn the corner and realize that they have to win the game without relying on the offensive line much at all. Throw in that Tampa Bay comes in ranked No. 16 in overall DVOA to Carolina’s No. 28, and three points at home is not enough.
I said I would not play the Buccaneers again but I just can’t help myself against and overvalued team with Sam Darnold at quarterback and a Tampa team with revenge on their mind from the first game they played. I will lay the three points with Tom Brady.
» Bet Panthers vs Buccaneers Now
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Finally, Monday Night Football gets a great matchup. The DVOA numbers show Buffalo at No. 1 and Cincy at No. 7. The Buffalo defense is thought of as one of the best in the league and the numbers show that. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen are both the best in their own ways at quarterback. Both teams have great receivers in Stefon Diggs and Ja’Marr Chase.
The Bills defense numbers are the best but if there was an award for best halftime adjustments, either the Bengals or 49ers would get that. The biggest thing separating them is the Bengals have the game at home but the Bills discovered a running game with Devin Singletary and James Cook.
This one should be a classic and I will take the team with the better defense and the Buffalo Bills to win this one!
Have a great NFL weekend and apologies for the dud last week!