Each week, Coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach’s perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread throughout the 2022 NFL season.
We got back on the winning track last week going into the last regular season games of the year. There are so many things that factor in that usually don’t on these last games so be careful.
First, do not think just because one team has “something to play for” like a playoff spot or home field, etc., that they will play harder than the other team. These are pros and many just play hard because they get paid well and because they love it whether they are playing for a playoff spot or not. This is not the NBA where you never know from night to night who even cares.
Second, the playoff teams that might sit guys because they can’t advance their position are ones to be aware of as they get certain guys healing time for the playoffs.
Third, time of day. Do not bet some of the late games early because circumstances change
Finally, one NFL coach told me there is a big difference between finishing above or below .500 or last or next to the last in their respective divisions. So those are all things to help navigate some muddy waters this weekend.
I found two games that I like as far as wagering this week.
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh somehow has fought its way into playoff contention and they still need Buffalo to beat New England and the Jets to beat the Dolphins. Both of those games are certainly possible to go their way. They will be scoreboard watching.
On offense, Pittsburgh is just kind of wild to watch. They have settled in on Kenny Pickett and while he makes some spectacular plays because he can buy time with his legs, he is averaging less than 200 YPG passing and he doesn’t mind taking the drive-killing sacks. George Pickens and Diontae Johnson are very serviceable receivers and Pat Freiermuth is having a solid year at tight end, averaging six targets per game for the whole year.
The biggest thing with me, and it’s not all Pickett’s fault, is that he has a strong tendency to throw the ball short of the first down which is also a known drive-killer. The offense by design should shoulder some of that blame. That would not be so bad but their run game with Najee Harris is not good either. They give up more yards per carry than they gain. Overall they average 4.9 YPP on offense and give up 5.5. For a team that can’t run the ball, they need to be able to throw. And they don’t do either very well.
The Browns and Deshaun Watson certainly haven’t lit it up since his return but they have the threat of a powerful run game which really changes the way defenses have to play them. Teams have to play an extra guy in the box to ensure they don’t just get run all over. Nick Chubb is a force by himself and even though Watson is playing like someone that has not played in a while, it is helping that teams have to be more patient on defense with Watson in the backfield and the threat to run the ball too. And, although Watson wasn’t great last week, he did throw touchdowns to Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. That will back the defenses off even more and let Chubb do his thing.
We all know the Pittsburgh defense led by T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick is always one of the best all-around in the league. But Cleveland’s defense is coming on of late as well. They are ranked No. 13 in weighted DVOA right now and have played better and better.
With the role of nothing to lose, I think Watson has a breakout game and I am buying it from 2.5 up to a 3-point line if I need to do so. I really think Cleveland wins this outright, though. I just am a little afraid of Mike Tomlinson’s streak of having winning teams.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3)
If I told you a team was on a three-game winning streak, giving up 12 PPG in those last three and two of them were on the road, you wouldn’t think Saints. That is who I am describing though. They are up against Carolina who has lost two of last three, two of those were at home, and are giving up over 26 PPG in those three and left it all on the line last week. I think that will be their largest problem.
Somehow after a bad year and getting rid of Baker Mayfield, Christian McCaffrey, and losing their coach midseason, they were still in control of their own destiny. But Tom Brady decided he wanted to go to the playoffs somewhere in the second half and that was all for the Panthers.
Simply put, the Saints are in front of the home crowd to finish the season, they have a nice streak going into the offseason, and I know they have offensive problems, but they are finishing against the No. 26 defense in the NFL. And while everyone is talking about how well Sam Darnold has looked (really?) over the past few weeks and how well they run the ball, they are facing a defense that is very good, and even better at home with some crowd help. The Saints come in as the No. 9 defense in the league.
Sam Darnold is probably good for a couple of interceptions and I think Alvin Kamara finally showing some signs of life will help the cause on both sides. I like the way the Saints are using Rashid Shaheed right now as well. He is good for one or two really nice plays a game.
The Saints have had more total sacks and passes defensed in the last three-game stretch than they have over any stretch this season. They are playing their hardest and best right now and I think they hold the Panthers around the average that they have had over the past three games that is just over 12 PPG since the bye week. The Panthers giving up at least 24 points in every game over the last four weeks will help the Saints put up 20 at least to give them the cover of -3.
Other games to think about playing:
I could see the Broncos having a good final game at home to give them some feeling of effort into the offseason so I like them -3. The Chargers should be resting some guys going into their playoff game next week.
I think the Eagles’ first half line of minus-7.5 is a good one for them to get on track versus a Giants team that is not playing all the starters.
Warren Sharp has detailed the foolishness of the NFL and the way they set up these games on Sunday. Regardless, though, of early outcomes, the Lions play harder than everyone else and I think they can keep it close or beat the Packers. The Lions are worth a look at +4.5.
Have a great NFL weekend.