Week 5 was a step in the right direction as five quarterbacks threw for 300 yards and teams averaged 244 passing yards, a 10% increase over any week this season.
Matthew Stafford took the weekly honors of most passing yards for the second consecutive week, this time in an overtime loss against the 49ers.
A theme continues to emerge that game state matters for ceiling games from quarterbacks.
The game that featured the weekly passing leader has had a lead change in the final two minutes in all five weeks this season, including two games that have gone to overtime.
Commonly, both quarterbacks from these games end up matching each other’s success.
The Buccaneers won on a last-play field goal against the Seahawks in a game that went well over the total.
The top four quarterbacks for passing yards from Week 5 were the quarterbacks involved in the two games mentioned above between the Rams, 49ers, Buccaneers, and Seahawks.
Stafford’s Rams are touchdown favorites against the Ravens this week, and I’m predicting a dip in passing unless the Ravens can find a way to turn their offensive struggles around.
NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 41-40 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 40-37 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 23-20 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 27-20 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | 389 | San Francisco 49ers | 26-23 |
Most Week 6 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Patrick Mahomes (+900)
Mahomes is averaging 36.3 pass attempts per game and has found improved efficiency with the return of Xavier Worthy.
His yards per attempt average has climbed from 6.4 in Weeks 1 through 3 to 7.5 in Weeks 4 and 5.
The Detroit Lions are having flashbacks from last season as injuries continue to mount up, especially a cluster of injuries in the secondary.
Starting cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed have already been ruled out/
Backup corner Khalil Dorsey has been placed on the injured reserve.
Avonte Maddox and Kerby Joseph have not practiced.
Brian Branch is dealing with a foot injury.
The Chiefs continue to place the offense in the hands of their best player and are throwing at a rate of 9% over expectation.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs face an aggressive counterpart in Dan Campbell, who coaches to win by scoring as many points as possible.
Since the start of 2024, the Lions lead the league in fourth down aggressiveness metrics and remain in the bottom-10 of field goal attempts.
This matchup should provide a favorable gamescript for Mahomes to create a ceiling passing yardage game.
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Week 6 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Trevor Lawrence Ladders
- Over 226.6 Passing Yards (-113)
- 250+ Passing Yards (+163)
- 270+ Passing Yards (+266)
- 300+ Passing Yards (+555)
- Passing TDs Over 1.5 (+110)
The Jaguars are 4-1, but Trevor Lawrence has not taken the leap forward many were hoping to with Liam Coen.
Lawrence is averaging 212 passing yards per game while completing 60.6% of his passes and throwing 6 touchdowns to 5 interceptions.
The Jaguars are winning, and it has masked Lawrence’s struggles up to this point.
Fortunately for Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr. appears to be trending positively, and Travis Hunter has had back-to-back most productive games in terms of yardage.
The Jaguars face an ailing Seahawks secondary that just got torched for 379 yards by Baker Mayfield.
Riq Woolen is in the concussion protocol, and Devon Witherspoon has not practiced this week as it appears the secondary will be relying on backups.
The Seahawks allowed Mayfield to complete 87.9% of his passes on Sunday and are allowing a 70.3% completion rate on the season.
It is starting to become if not now then when for Lawrence.
Week 6 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Joe Flacco Struggles
- Joe Flacco Interception (-155)
- Joe Flacco 2+ Interceptions (+241)
- Packers D/ST Anytime Touchdown (+450)
Flacco threw at least 1 interception in every game as a Cleveland Brown this season, including 2 interceptions in two games, and now enters a worse situation for a 40-year-old pocket passer.
The Bengals rank dead last in ESPN’s Pass Block win rate and face Micah Parsons and the Green Bay Packers as 14-point underdogs.