Each week, Coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach’s perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread throughout the 2022 NFL season.
Wow, we have two great games this weekend as Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the Bills come in seeking revenge for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the Chiefs snatching that AFC Championship Game appearance away from them last January.
Then, take a break and eat some dinner, which in my house will come in the form Pizza Cafe Pizza and an ice cold Pepsi. and get ready for Micah Parsons and the Dallas Cowboys against Jalen Hurts and the division rival Philadelphia Eagles.
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs
Late afternoon, Kansas City.
Two 4-1 teams that inexplicably lost the one game. Buffalo lost a game at Miami after being three yards away from 500 of total offense and just one turnover while Miami had just 212 total yards. The lowly Colts somehow held Mahomes and Kansas City to 315 total yards and sacked him five times while beating the Chiefs by three points.
I am setting that table to say that as good as we all think both these teams are, they do have their weaknesses and are capable of being chickens and laying eggs. Let’s hope not in anticipation of the best game of this young year.
The Bills come into this game with their defense ranked higher than their offense in the analytics world. The defense is second-best while the offense comes in at No. 7 by DVOA. The Chiefs are third on offense and ranked No. 15 on defense.
Both quarterbacks are having an awesome year. Here are the comparisons:
Josh Allen – 1,651 yards, 14 Touchdowns, 4 picks, 66.8%, and a 107.4 rating
Patrick Mahomes – 1,398 yards, 15 Touchdowns, 2 picks, 66.7%, and a 110.5 rating.
So the quarterbacks are for sure going to do their things. It is going to come down to something else. I look at the matchups of the KC offense against that Bills defense. They are under the radar for sure.
I thought losing Micah Hyde might set the Bills back but they are able to put pressure on the quarterback without having to blitz which will free up a man to play spy on Mahomes. Last year in the playoffs, Mahomes ran for 69 yards as the leading rusher in the game. That pressure they will provide is seemingly the only thing that slows him down. Von Miller is huge for the Chiefs and is there primarily for games just like this.
I have watched a ton of film on Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds and those guys both can do a little bit of everything. They can play coverage, stop the run, and blitz the passer. I believe they have the capacity to slow the Chiefs down as well as anyone in football. I don’t doubt that Mahomes will make some good plays that he pulls out of a hat, but I think that pressure forces him to add to his interception total and eat the ball some as well. The Bills do need to take away Kelce but who do you worry about next?
I don’t have nearly the faith in the Chiefs defense as they are middle of the pack in the Pass Rush Win Rate and towards the bottom of the league on their secondary simply playing the ball in the air.
Allen is a real threat to beat you with his legs rushing the ball and with Diggs and Gabe Davis, the secondary that doesn’t play the ball well can’t take both of those guys away. Davis is averaging over 40 yards per touchdown on his last eight touchdowns dating back to last year.
That is truly incredible so you better play him over the top, which opens things up for Diggs. But you better not let Diggs beat you so you rush four and Allen will with his legs. The Chiefs simply cannot control the line of scrimmage like the Bills can.
Oddly enough I think both teams try to take some of the pressure off the quarterbacks and offensive lines by attempting to run the ball early. I see a low-scoring game in the first half with the Bills leading at the half with their defense being stronger in regular play.
The only thing I am skeptical at all in picking the Bills to win, is the way they play defense when they get ahead. They play a softer style that really disagrees with them and give up points too fast. You cannot do that against the Chiefs. They can always come back as we saw against the Raiders.
All that said, I don’t think it’s close enough and I predict a 31-20 or 34-21 type of game with the Bills getting their revenge at the same place where their heart was taken last year in a span of 13 seconds. Bills win as road favorites as Mahomes is an underdog as a home starter for the first time in his career.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Sunday night, Philadelphia.
Cooper Rush takes the field in the most hostile environment and with his team needing him to actually win the game instead of managing the game like they have so far. People are looking at the 4-0 record but that was against, a bad Bengals team, no one knows Giants team, horrible Washington team, and a Rams team that is a shell of themselves from last year.
On top of that, with Rush at quarterback, the Cowboys offense is ranked No. 31 in reaching the red zone and the No. 28 team in the league in converting on third down. AND, 71% of their scoring has been field goals with him, which is the absolute worst in the league.
Jalen Hurts, on the other hand, has completed right under 68% of his passes for 1,359 yards. Are you worried about his only throwing four touchdowns? In Philadelphia, they like him to run them in rather than throw them in as he has six touchdowns using his legs. He has only thrown two interceptions as well. By the way I think a great stat should be interceptions per yards thrown — how many do you throw but still getting the ball down the field?
Philadelphia comes in ranked No. 2 in DVOA while the Cowboys come in ranked No. 6. On defense, they come in ranked No. 5 and No. 6, respectively, and on offense, Philly comes in No. 5 while Dallas comes in at No. 17. There is your difference, and it’s a big one.
The other big difference is that both these teams get after the quarterback. Dallas comes in as the No. 2 sack leader while the Eagles are No. 5. Hurts will take some sacks but on some of those pressures he will make big yards scrambling out of the pocket. On other pressures, he will find time and find some receivers down the field.
Cooper Rush is throwing the ball a shorter distance down field and therefore, less explosive plays are happening down the field.
Both teams will try to run as the other is mediocre against the run. Home crowd affects the ability to change the play, and blocking schemes, and that advantage goes to the Eagles as well. Also, the Eagles run for 160 yards per game while the Cowboys run for 115.
With the Eagles throwing for 260 a game and the Cowboys throwing for around 180.
The defenses are not very far apart but there is a large difference in the offenses. The Eagles have the ability to come from behind if needed with a veteran quarterback but if the Cowboys fall behind, they certainly do not. I am assuming the Eagles and the Cowboys break even in the turnover battle and if so, the Eagles will win this game by two touchdowns.
I am taking the Eagles minus the six points.
Extras
Bonus games for me include the Saints plus the 2 at home versus the Bengals, Seattle at home plus-2.5 versus the Cardinals, and the Broncos plus-4.5 versus the Chargers (yes I am a glutton for punishment).
A good teaser (I know, I know, teasers are for suckers) is Tampa down to minus-2 against the Steelers on a 6.5-point teaser with the Packers -1 versus the Jets.