Each week, Coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach’s perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread throughout the 2022 NFL season.
I almost don’t need any stats, analysis or even much thought on these two games. Dallas is at home and getting Dak Prescott back versus Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, coming off a loss to the Giants at home, are taking on the team that took their place in Cleveland. Control Nick Chubb and they win the game easily.
Won both of my big games last week with Buffalo beating Kansas City and Philadelphia beating the Cowboys easier than the score made it appear with Cooper Rush at quarterback. So it’s kind of strange that I dive back in with one of the same teams but switch them to winners.
Hey listen, I have been watching the Cowboys for over 45 years. I get to live and die with their crazy seasons where they have some part of the team that is really good, and another part that gets them beat against teams they should walk over. It is no different this year, to be honest. And there is always a weird story to the season as well. Again, no different.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
The Cowboys come into this game off a loss and getting their starting quarterback back. I know some people were talking a Drew Bledsoe/Tom Brady storyline. The three interceptions on Sunday NIght Football put and end tot that quickly. But, during that Prescott layoff, the Cowboys discovered some creativity on defense and enabled it to truly show that they could be really good.
Their pass rush is the best in many ways and adjusted sack rate. The best part of this game will be that Dallas pass rush versus the Detroit Lions offensive line pass blocking. It’s really a one versus one matchup. Yes, the Lions are ranked No. 1 in adjusted sack rate offensively. Dallas will get there and the overall No. 9 ranked Lions offense will have a few moments but they are coming off a bye and being shut out by the Patriots.
I think Dallas picks up a few things off them and with D’Andre Swift’s status still unkown, I see the points being hard to come by this week as well.
Micah Parsons is being moved around more and more and even though they are doing one of my most unfavorite things, moving their best pass rusher into a coverage role occasionally, he actually is pretty good at that too.
Detroit has been playing way over their head and I think the Patriots started their descension/regression back to their mean. The advantage is definitely in favor of Dallas there.
The Detroit defense is the No. 32 defense in the NFL. Dallas is middle of the pack on offense and that is with Cooper Rush and a watered-down offense. I like that they are using Tony Pollard more and more. Michael Gallup is already making an impact on coverages and I think the Cowboys will rely on him now in crucial situations. He will certainly help CeeDee Lamb work underneath and work the middle more because Gallup works the deep routes down the sideline and the back shoulders well.
Dallas should be able to run the ball effectively as they are the No. 6 team in rushing DVOA in the league while Detroit comes in as the No.31 run defense in DVOA. This should be a perfect game for Dak to come back, have some success, and for the Cowboys to get some momentum going into the middle of the season. I like the Cowboys by two touchdowns.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Let’s look at this next game a little differently. Let’s compare defense to defense first. Baltimore’s defense comes in not what you would normally think about a former Ray Lewis–led defense. That’s how I always think of the Ravens defense, a Ray Lewis TYPE of defense. They are far from that right now. They are No. 16 overall, No. 10 versus the pass and No. 24 versus the run. That run ranking is the part that mystifies me a bit.
They have given up big leads against the Dolphins and the Bills. They basically put the Dolphins on the NFL map this year by giving up 28 points to them in the fourth quarter of the game alone. And that ranking versus the run? Where they really are being hurt in this big comebacks and giving up long third downs to offenses is they do not have a dominant pass rusher. There is no one on the edge that scares anyone. There is no one to plan to change the offense a little and keep a tight end in to block or keep a back in to chip before leaking out. And that is hurting them.
The saving grace that I see on defense is that it seems to occur in spurts in only certain parts of the game. They show long stretches of good defensive play. I think it is far easier to fix short stretches and that tells me that is really not who they are. They may have to blitz to get pressure but every quarterback in the league is worse versus the blitz so that is not all bad.
Cleveland’s defense is one that I see no remedy for. They come in No. 31 overall, No. 27 versus the pass and No. 30 against the run. That is bad for sure but here are the quarterbacks they have faced: rookie Bailey Zappe, Marcus Mariota, Justin Herbert (I’ll give you that one), Mitch Trubisky, Joe Flacco, and Baker Mayfield. We are not talking about Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes making them put up these numbers. Lamar Jackson should be able to do whatever he wants against these guys. I hope there is a prop bet on 300 passing/100 rushing yards. Depending on the odds, it’s not a bad possibility. They have given up over 30 points in three of their six games and again, against not-so-great offenses.
Now offensively, both teams can get after you in the run game with Baltimore coming in as No 3 and Cleveland coming in No. 4. Jackson, Kenyan Drake, and J. K. Dobbins all had seven carries or more in the last game Baltimore played and Drake had 119 yards on 10 carries. Chubb is the best pure runner in the league and Kareem Hunt is no slouch.
The biggest difference is in the pass game. Mark Andrews is probably the second best tight end in the NFL. The style of run game and the way teams have to play that really open things up for Lamar Jackson in the pass game as long as they are not playing from behind. Baltimore is No. 4 at passing the ball in football right now.
For Cleveland, thank God for Chubb so the play-action game works so well for them or they would be far worse than middle of the pack. Jacoby Brissett averages just over six yards per attempt. That is not going to win you very many football games. So one of the weaknesses of the Ravens defense, that third and long ineffectiveness at times, the Browns can’t take advantage of. They will take advantage of the run, but Cleveland does that every weak and still doesn’t win.
Baltimore is coming off a loss at the Giants and are back home. They have a game with Tom Brady and Tampa on deck. This is a must win for the Ravens in my opinion. Baltimore wins by 17 in a high scoring game.
Extras
Bonus Games: Tampa Bay -11 over the Carolina Panthers, Broncos -1 over the Jets, and the upset of the week, 49ers +3 versus Kansas City.
Have a great NFL week!