Each week, Coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach’s perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread throughout the 2022 NFL season.
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
I wanted to see not how Dak Prescott played, but how the Cowboy coaching staff called plays with him in. I thought they called it a little conservative early on. But later on, Prescott began throwing downfield more with an average depth of throw at almost 13 yards as our own Dan Pizzuta pointed out on the Sharp Football Analysis website. I was pleased with that. When Cooper Rush was playing, over 71% of his throws were within 10 yards of the LOS. When Dak threw Sunday, the number was down to 56%. He didn’t look particularly sharp on those but that opens things up for shorter throws and the run game.
Another thing that they did was use a lot of play-action. Prescott averaged 0.76 EPA per dropback and completed over 90% of his passes, which I would think the Cowboys would take every time.
Look, I know it isn’t great but it is a promising start for the Cowboys. Having their quarterback return has to give the entire team confidence. It changes the way that the team can call plays on both sides of the ball. It means that they have a chance to come back if they get behind, which I do not think Rush was capable of doing (see Eagles game).
There is a better chance of getting the ball downfield to CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. There is not as much pressure on Ezekiel Elliott (who could be out) and Tony Pollard to run when the opposing defense knows you are going to run.
On defense, the Cowboys have been consistently in the top three on defense in many categories. They are No. 2 in defensive DVOA by a tiny margin to the Bills. They are No. 1 in sacks and Adjusted Sack Rate. The Bears and Justin Fields do not want to drop back and throw the ball a lot, but if they get behind, which they will, it will have to happen.
Meanwhile, Fields is No. 38 on the accurate passer list in the NFL according to NextGen Stats by CPOE. That is next to last of everyone who has enough throws to qualifty. That doesn’t bode well against a Cowboys secondary that often gambles for the interception. Everyone knows turnovers will kill any team and I can see Fields with two turnovers alone in this game.
Everyone is high on the Bears after their performance against the Patriots which I believe was definitely an outlier. They fumbled the ball five times and got all of them back. They played a team in the Patriots that had a quarterback in Mac Jones that had missed a couple of weeks due to an injury. The Patriots turned the ball over a very uncharacteristic four times. It appeared as if they were taking the Bears a little lightly, which could be easily done with the way the Bears have played.
It was truly the perfect storm for the Bears to win. Now at least they did take advantage of it. Until the Patriots game, over 10% of Justin Fields passes to an open receiver were uncatchable balls. That is a freaky high number for an NFL quarterback. He at least did move ahead of Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield of the Carolina Panthers.
Chicago came into the game ranked No. 28 in DVOA overall, No. 31 on offense and No. 15 in defense. Dallas comes in ranked No. 2, No. 18, and No. 2 respectively.
Without Dak, Dallas is in the middle third of the league in passing efficiency. Michael Gallup has been out. Their tight end, Dalton Schultz, has missed some time as well. But even with teams knowing they have to run the ball, they still have been in the top 10 in rush DVOA.
Chicago has struggled passing the ball as we have mentioned coming in next to last in efficiency ahead of, you guessed it, the Carolina Panthers and Mayfield. (There is a direct correlation to quarterback accuracy and the overall efficiency of their passing game.)
They run the ball a little better, coming in at No. 19 with a large part of that being Justin Fields running the ball. He may be their best weapon but he sure takes enough hits in the pocket to not believe he can take a lot more when the Bears have designed plays for him to run the ball.
The Cowboys are NOT a team that you want to have to rely on the quarterback to run and throw the ball on them. Fields will be pressured and hit in the passing game and I think that will affect his running. Micah Parsons is a guy that will be hard for him to run away from as well.
Dallas will be able to throw even more effectively this week as Prescott and his receivers get some more of their timing back on the places they will be on certain plays and after certain play actions. Ezekiel Elliott is a big question mark as to whether he will be healthy enough to play and I think that actually have Tony Pollard as the back with the majority of carries will help them because he has the more explosive play potential. And everyone that follows me knows that is the most important thing when it comes to winning and losing a game. And if you want consistency, Pollard is ranked ahead of Zeke in running back DVOA as well.
At the time of this writing, the Cowboys are favored by 9.5. I am laying the points with the Bears coming in overinflated in value and Dallas coming back with a week of Dak being back under their belt.
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
I can’t wait for the game between two teams that were honestly chosen the most to finish last in their respective divisions. The New York Giants come in with one of the most electrifying players in the league in Saquon Barkley. Brian Daboll must be the quarterback whisperer with the job he has done on Daniel Jones and don’t forget, Josh Allen.
Let me tell you about Geno Smith. I haven’t been a fan always for sure. But I do love when it seems that guys figure things out and change their career. Some will say that Smith has been in bad situations, which is true. But watching him now in the pocket, on play-action, when he has to move; he looks like a different quarterback.
Smith is doing little things I haven’t seen. He is carrying out fakes on runs and hiding the ball when he DOESN’T have it that is sometimes holding a defender that should have been at the point of attack, or at least the man left for a cutback. Geno Smith appears to be having a great time. Right now, he is THE most accurate passer in the NFL by CPOE. That in itself has been shown historically to win a lot of games. Smith comes in ranked No. 4 on the list of DYAR and passing DVOA. The biggest thing to me is the fact that he is throwing the ball down the field and still No. 1 on the accuracy list in NextGen Stats. He is putting together an incredible season.
Putting together this offense, the changing of playcallers over the last couple of years, and additions to the offensive line, have changed the way the Seahawks call plays. In my opinion, that is a huge plus. Add what Geno has done to defenses to make them respect the passing game and go two high more, and that opens up the running game.
The Seahawks come in ranked No.10 in rushing DVOA on offense and that’s even with the loss of Rashaad Penny. But Kenneth Walker has stepped in and been nothing short of the perfect replacement for him. They actually improve with him from No. 18 in DYAR to No. 12 and in running back DVOA from No. 12 to No. 8. He had an awesome 74-yard touchdown run against the Chargers that put him at 168 for the game on a score that sealed the game. His ability to break long runs adds an element that will help that passing game as well.
Daniel Jones is not high on the list of either analytical category as he is No. 19 in DYAR and No. 20 in DVOA. That’s not what I am talking about with Daboll. When Jones came into the NFL, he was one of the least accurate quarterbacks in college football. His first couple of years in the league, that did not change. But this year, almost halfway through, Jones is the No. 5 most accurate quarterback by CPOE. That is huge and maybe even bigger is the fact that he is not turning the ball over.
Over the last couple of years, he has been among league leaders in turnovers. He has always had a high rate of fumbles per touch and this year, that has become a strength for him seemingly instead of an absolute killer for the Giants. Some of that had to come with experience but there is no coincidence that Daboll has done a nice job with him.
This combination has the passing offense of the Giants at No. 8 and with that pressure on the defense to defend the pass better, it has truly allowed the box to have fewer defenders and they come in at No. 6 in that category.
So both offenses are capable of putting up some numbers, moving the ball via the run or the pass, and making explosive plays. But the difference will be the defenses they are going against. Seattle is a middle-of-the-pack No. 19 in total defense DVOA coming in at No. 19 versus the pass and No. 17 against the run. They have actually been steadily improving since the beginning of the year. The Giants come in at No. 29 overall, No. 26 against the pass, and No. 30 versus the run.
You have to be able to have something that you do well when your defense is struggling the way the Giants are and that is just not going to happen consistently. They are No. 30 in open field tackling and No. 28 in adjusted sack rate. The Seahawks’ biggest problem might be like mine when I walk up to a buffet, where do I want to start when I devour this thing?
There are two plays I like in this game. I really like the Seahawks with the 12th Man at home minus the three points. But I think the Giants will move the ball some with Daboll calling the plays and the newly found accuracy of Daniel Jones. They seem also to not mind getting the ball to their best player in Saquon Barkley’s hands a lot either. I know the Seahawks will score so I like the total over 44 as well.
Extras
Bonus looks for me include Broncos +3 against Jaguars in London, Minnesota -3.5 at home versus the Cardinals, and the Bengals -3 against Cleveland on Monday night.
The Bengals look to be a sucker bet to me but I can’t figure out a way for Cleveland to beat them unless they turn the ball over four times or more.
Have a great NFL weekend.