Each week, Coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach’s perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread throughout the 2022 NFL season.
I need to settle on two games this weekend for writing purposes and it was difficult. I almost think the Detroit Lions are ready to finish off Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers but it didn’t quite make the cut. I think the Saints on Monday night are a tough out and match up well with the Ravens in spots that matter but Lamar Jackson took me away from them for this article.
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (+3)
Let’s go with Justin Herbert and his big arm 5-yard passing offense at the Marcus Mariota-led Atlanta Falcons. There are a lot of reasons I like this game. Some are analytical and some are just the coaching eye test. Let’s start with that.
Watch the Falcons. I simply think they play harder than the Chargers do as a team. That’s so subjective, I know, but I think they also make better use of what they have to work with. That seems subjective too but there is easy proof of that.
It’s not hard to see that Herbert has one of the stronger arms in the game. And right now he is No. 35 on average depth of target (aDOT) in the league. Okay, take out a few guys that played as backups that are ahead of him, which is still embarrassing, and he is only ranked ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Kenny Pickett, and Baker Mayfield. Only TWO of those guys below him has a winning record and Zach Wilson’s shouldn’t count because he hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record yet. And he probably won’t have a winning record when the season is over. That is interesting, isn’t it? Why would those quarterbacks have losing records?
When a team does not throw the ball down the field much at all, the linebackers, who have the difficult job of coming forward against the run and going backward versus a pass of eight yards or over, do NOT have to do that. They become players that only have to play forward. Their job is so much easier against the run. Have you ever wondered what is truly meant by the pass sets up the run? Well that’s the reason, I believe. Sorry about the lesson there but people talk about it and I am not sure everyone knows really what some of these sayings really mean and why aDOT is important in setting up the entire offense.
My point is, the Chargers are not using Herbert well but I think the Falcons are using Mariota exactly as they should. They don’t believe, and I agree, that he is a “drop back 40 times a game” guy that can win for you like that.
Instead, they developed a run game in the same ballpark as the Baltimore Ravens did for Lamar Jackson. They are using him to hold defensive ends, tackles or linebackers with certain run looks that mean basically that Mariota is blocking those guys. When those defenders don’t respect it, he runs the ball. Watch Jalen Hurts if you want another way to do this.
On offense, the Falcons rank well ahead of the Chargers in my favorite DVOA rankings. Atlanta is ranked No. 9 overall, No. 8 in passing, and No. 10 in rushing DVOA. The Chargers are ranked No. 16, No. 11, and No. 28, respectively. Not many people would have believed that coming into the year.
So how does that match up with the defenses they will be playing? That’s where Atlanta is hurting. They come in No. 31 overall, No. 30 versus the pass, and No. 26 versus the run. The good news is that the Chargers simply won’t be able to take much of an advantage of the run.
Where Atlanta makes up for it is in the open field tackling world, which can be ultra important to stop YAC, and by not allowing a four-yard run to become an explosive run. Atlanta ranks No. 4 in that department. The Chargers rank No. 32, dead last! That hurts, and it hurts badly. It causes the things that matter more than anything in football when it comes to winning and losing, explosive plays.
The Falcons will be peppering them all day with efficient passing and running, waiting for them to miss an open field tackle and turning that into explosive plays. Los Angeles will hit the Falcons with weak runs, many of them when you should not call them (on second-and-long), and short passes. The Falcons will make the tackles and the Chargers will have to piece together 16-play drives without doing something to screw it up.
The Falcons are also 3-1 straight up and 3-1 ATS at home. The lone loss was against the Saints in Week 1 and they actually had that game seemingly in control until very late.
I am taking the Falcons plus three and expecting an entertaining game.
Miami Dolphins (-4) at Chicago Bears
Let’s move on to Tua Tagovailoa and the high-flying (and swimming) Miami Dolphins. They are taking on the Chicago Bears and a seemingly improved Justin Fields. Notice I said seemingly. I am not buying into the “the Bears finally learned how to use Justin Fields” story. I know they scored 62 points in the last two weeks against the Patriots and the Cowboys. He still just threw for 330 yards combined and cannot lead them from behind if they get to that point. I don’t see how they don’t get to that point!
With the addition of Bradley Chubb in the pass rush department and having him also able to chase Fields around, I think this is an awful matchup for the Bears.
Let’s talk overall looks. First, I think people are giving the last two weeks too much value. That has inflated their odds a bit. Next, coming in overall rankings in DVOA, the Dolphins check in at No. 12 and the Bears at No. 29. On offense the Dolphins check in at No. 5 overall, No. 3 in passing, and No. 19 in rushing. The Bears, with their “two best offensive games of the year”, check in at No. 29 overall, No. 31 passing, and No. 18 rushing according to Football Outsiders.
With the line currently sitting at 4 and 4.5, Chicago must have an advantage on defense. That is not the case either. They check in with the Dolphins being one slot ahead of them at No. 25.
The beautiful part is, the thing that brings the Dolphins down, is their pass defense. They are ranked No. 29 there and the Bears simply cannot take advantage of that. The Bears’ strength, and I use that term lightly, is their run game and that is where Miami is stronger checking in at No. 9 in the league in run DVOA.
The Bears’ only hope then relies on a pass defense that comes in at No.18 in yards per attempt and No. 19 in pass DVOA. And they haven’t seen anyone like the Dolphins in the pass game. Their opponents that kept them below average versus the passing game include the likes of New England, Washington, Houston, and San Francisco. Those teams usually bring people’s defensive averages up.
They haven’t seen anything like the Dolphins. Honestly, they are very unique in what they do. Tua Tagovailoa is one of the fastest at getting the ball out of his hands but his ADOT is one of the highest of any starter in the league. And let’s be honest, I have never seen a team with two of the league’s fastest receivers.
Both guys can take a seven-yard pass and make it 40 very easily. Tua also is third in the league at accuracy by CPOE, according to Next Gen Stats and that is huge to run after the catch so a receiver doesn’t have to turn around to catch the ball on a crossing route, or slow down and let a defender catch him on a slant.
These guys catch the ball on moving routes running full speed and there is not much that defenders can do with them after that. Justin Fields meanwhile, is above only two quarterbacks that have thrown a pass in the NFL this year in accuracy. He is ahead of only Zach Wilson and Baker Mayfield. There is a direct correlation with covering the spread and quarterback accuracy over the last couple of years and this certainly is a huge advantage to the Dolphins.
The Bears will have to hope the run game can get it done and there is simply no way they can come from behind if it does not. That said, I would definitely lay the four points, even if I had to buy it down somewhere.
Extras
Bonus plays are the Vikings -3, the Saints +3 (buying up), and the Bills -11.5 over the Jets. They took it easy on the Packers in the second half and Josh Allen seemed pissed. I don’t think they will do it this week versus an inept offense like the Jets.
Have a great NFL weekend.