Coach’s Picks: Best Bets Against The Spread, NFL Wild Card Weekend

Each week, Coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach’s perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread throughout the 2022 NFL season.

To me, NFL Wild Card Weekend is like March Madness is for basketball lovers. I love this time of year. To every team, it matters. You get to watch and see how the greatest in the game react under pressure, coaches and players! I have been in the meeting rooms with these guys. IT MATTERS! Some people think, oh they made their money, it’s not like college football. It’s not. It’s better. These guys care, I promise you. And that’s what makes it that much better.

I dove into all six games this week. But I hate the fact that we appear to be missing Lamar Jackson from the Ravens, and Tua Tagovailoa for the Dolphins. I hate that because the Dolphins have no chance with Skylar Thompson starting. 

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game comes down simply to listening to my head or my heart, sort of. I love the Cowboys and always have. I love Tom Brady. He is truly the greatest of all time but this year is just different. My heart says TB12 brings it together in the playoffs. My brain says there is no way that offensive line gets any better nor does the playcalling.

So let’s take a look at what matters. When Tampa and Brady are on offense, their playcalling is awful. They love to run on first down and make very little and then put themselves in a situation where that offensive line is in a passing down and they are terrible in pass block win rate.

Overall they are the No. 28 line in the NFL and that is an improvement from the first few weeks. They cannot buy Brady any time and as a result, he is having to predetermine too much of what he is going to do with the ball, throw a lot away, or throw short of the sticks. All are recipes for disaster. While Tampa has been able to move the ball well enough to be No. 6 in net yards per drive, they haven’t been good in the red zone at all and finished No. 21 in that area. 

As a matter of fact, the Bucs scored more than 24 points only two times all year long. Brady ranks as No. 25 in accuracy by CPOE and the lack of a reliable tight end has affected him.

What is worse for them is, against quarterbacks that don’t move well, the Dallas defense has feasted and racked up sacks. The Cowboys finished No. 2 overall in defense, No. 3 against the pass, and No. 5 against the run. They do NOT have a weakness that the Buccaneers can exploit. They could take advantage of Mike Evans deep IF they could play-action and find a little time. But that happens so rarely it shouldn’t factor into this outcome. Dallas finished No. 2 in adjusted sack rate on the year and that kills a lot of drives. 

On offense, the Cowboys are in a weird place. Dak Prescott has thrown an interception in 7 straight games and led the NFL in interceptions despite missing 5 games. The only good thing is, the last team to win the Super Bowl with a quarterback who led the league in picks happened 11 months ago, the Rams.

What makes it really weird is that since Dak has been back, the Cowboys lead the NFL in point differential. Since the Cowboys started truly splitting touches between Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott a month and a half ago, that probably contributed as much as Dak has to those points. Pollard is a player that has a higher success rate than Zeke on runs and pass plays. They probably should lean on him more. CeeDee Lamb has emerged as a very effective player against zone and man defense and Dak is one of the most effective in the league when the Cowboys use play-action. 

Tampa’s defense finished No. 15, their lowest in a few years, and their strength of stopping the run dropped to the middle of the pack finishing No. 13 in that category. 

I know Dallas looked terrible but I think they went into that game knowing that it didn’t matter at all if the Eagles were to win against a Giants team that was not playing their starters. A few minutes into the game, the score showed them as much and all focus was lost. Write that one off.

The line on this game dropped to 2.5 as of this writing and I am laying the points and this is my favorite game of the weekend. My heart says Tom Brady but my brain simply looks at the numbers and the video and they say Cowboys by 11.

» Bet Cowboys vs Buccaneers Now

Sharp Football Betting Package
Take 15% off NFL Betting + Props

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars

These Jaguars have been my enemy and my friend this year that’s for sure. But I love the matchup that the Chargers give them this week. The Chargers are the worst in the league against the run giving up over 5 YPC. While Jacksonville doesn’t run the ball extremely well, it sure helps to go against the No. 29 defensive line in the league. 

On early downs, Trevor Lawrence has the one thing that really hurts the Chargers as pointed out by my friend Warren Sharp this week. He thrives against blitzes when they don’t lead to pressure. Guess who is the worst at that in the second half of this season? So add that they like to blitz and not get there, which takes a man out of the passing lanes. Now the Chargers will get some pressure on Trevor Lawrence because Joey Bosa can be a monster. They did at least have the No. 11 adjusted sack rate in the league even with bad defensive line numbers. But the play-action helps a lot and the playcalling of Doug Pederson really makes a difference. I think he is one of the best in the league. Travis Etienne is used really well and Christian Kirk has a good combination of outs, deeps, and crossing routes. The play design is good and they get it done in spite of having the No. 29 offensive line in the league. 

On the other side, the Chargers have one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league but they really don’t let him throw the ball down the field very much. JUSTIN  HERBERT RANKED No. 38 OUT OF 41 QUARTERBACKS THAT QUALIFIED IN INTENDED AIR YARDS. That is absolutely insane for a quarterback of his arm strength and talent level. It’s also a contributor to their underachieving.

They simply have to use too many plays on a scoring drive. There have to be explosive plays in there somewhere and they have to come by throwing the ball further than an average of just over 6.0 yards down the field on average. That’s my biggest gripe with the Chargers. I will say though that somehow, even ranking nine slots behind the Jaguars on offense, they have managed to be able to finish high in net points per drive. 

Mike Williams was back but is questionable for this game. Keenan Allen has a few games under his belt since coming back and is being targeted at a very high rate, and that will only help them. Austin Ekeler ended up as one of only five players to rush for more than 800 yards and have 700 receiving yards in one season since 2000. Ekeler also led the NFL in touchdowns this year. The talent is there which is probably why they can maintain those drives without throwing it down the field very much. 

I know I mentioned it, but it is worth mentioning again that the defensive line ranked No. 29 overall for the Chargers. Jacksonville’s graded out as the No. 5 in the league. 

I think both teams move the ball against the other but the Jaguars having the better play caller, a coach that has been all the way, and a better defensive line, will find a way to win this game.

I like the Jaguars +3 and I like the total over 47. I am playing both and hope to go 3-0 this weekend on writeups.

» Bet Chargers vs Jaguars Now

Smaller plays to think about:

Dalvin Cook over 70.5 rushing yards. The Giants have the worst DVOA in the league against the run. First year coach Kevin O’Connell will want to be able to take some pressure off of Kirk Cousins, and set up play-action, and he will be aware of that run defense of the Giants. I do like the Giants to win the game or stay within the number though.

San Francisco should completely dominate the Seahawks. They have the No. 4 offensive line and the No. 2 defensive line vs No. 26 offensive line for Seattle and the No. 25 defensive line. San Francisco wins both trenches and has the better skill players in Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and Greg Kittle. San Francisco -4.5 First Half just in case the NFL’s second most accurate quarterback gets a backdoor late in the game to end it.

I like Justin Herbert to go over his 280.5 yards passing on that prop. I think they have to throw the ball a little more against this defensive line and I think they find some holes.

Good luck!

Dominate Fantasy All Year Long
Rankings, Projections & More
Articles