Notre Dame vs. BYU, Current Betting Odds:
- Notre Dame -10.5
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Notre Dame vs. BYU Best Bet Prediction:
- BYU +10.5
Notre Dame has breezed through an easy schedule, but there are some concerning trends building for the Irish, so let's take the home underdog and play BYU against the spread.
Notre Dame's Key Matchup on Offense
Notre Dame wants to set the tone with its physical rushing attack, but BYU's defense is built to stop exactly that.
Take a look at how these teams stack up in the run game based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Notre Dame: ranked 26th in yards before contact
- BYU: ranked 7th in yards before contact allowed
- Notre Dame: ranked 59th in yards after contact
- BYU: ranked 53rd in yards after contact allowed
BYU's defensive line has been particularly effective at getting into the backfield, contacting opposing running backs before they cross the line of scrimmage 51% of the time, the nation's ninth-highest rate.
Notre Dame's tendency to line up in heavier formations invites defenses to stack the box, which plays right into BYU's hands.
Based on opponent-adjusted data, BYU stacks the box at a rate 29% above expected, so the Irish's game plan allowed BYU defensive coordinator Kelly Poppinga to stick with his preferred defensive approach.
Although Notre Dame's rushing attack has been relatively effective, the Irish have struggled to produce big plays on the ground.
Only 9.5% of Notre Dame's rushing attempts have produced 10 or more yards, ranked 122nd.
That's a significant red flag considering the lack of competition the Irish have faced and the fact that last year's offense ranked third by the same metric.
Notre Dame has the passing game to make up for issues on the ground, but if the Irish can't run the ball effectively, it certainly increases the chances BYU makes this one interesting.
BYU's Key Matchup on Offense
BYU leans heavily on its power run game, but the Cougars will be without starting running back LJ Martin.
So can BYU maintain its typical style of play without its 225-pound workhorse in the backfield?
It won't be easy, primarily because Notre Dame appears to hold an advantage in the trenches based on these opponent-adjusted numbers:
- BYU: ranked 66th in yards before contact
- Notre Dame: ranked 33rd in yards before contact allowed
It's worth noting, however, that BYU tends to rank poorly in this metric every season due to its scheme.
BYU leans on heavy formations, which allows defenses to stack the box.
As a result, BYU running backs have received handoffs against a stacked box 60% of the time, the nation's 24th-highest rate, which naturally invites more early contact.
The Cougars still find ways to be effective despite facing stacked boxes in part because of the read-option and quarterback Bear Bachmeier‘s ability to run the ball.
The 6-foot-2, 230-pound Bachmeier is capable of matching the physical style of BYU's running backs and led BYU in rushing in each of the last two games since Martin's injury.
BYU has used the read-option on 30% of rushing attempts while averaging 8.0 yards per carry on those plays (ranked 10th).
Notre Dame's defense has handled the read-option well, giving up just 3.3 yards per attempt, but the Cougars' ability to use Bachmeier will at least keep the Irish defense on its toes and prevent them from selling out to stop the power run game.
Final Thoughts on BYU vs. Notre Dame Best Bets
This is a large spread for a home team with a physical rushing attack, so let's take the points and play BYU against the spread.